Time to Yank it Off?

Industry Observer with Swanepoel T3 Group

"We think maybe we should pull the house off the market and wait until next year...?" Many of our sellers are opening their weekly reports and wondering if waiting until next year would get them a higher price. Showing activity has dropped off and the number of price changes on hotsheets far outnumbers any new sales. Sellers are frustrated after a long hot summer of keeping the house clean and showing ready. We know we've been doing great marketing, so if the house is in good shape and staged to perfection, then price drops are the only thing left to do to get the house sold.

So is yanking the listing off the market a good idea? Probably not.

Patrick Newport, an economist for IHS Global Insights, expects median existing home prices to fall another 8 percent or so before bottoming out in the first quarter of next year. From there, he expects prices to begin a slow and fitful climb.

Yesterday I came across a blog post from Steve Harney that addresses this very issue. Steve clearly states that the experts he follows believe that it will be at least two years before the drop in housing prices stabilizes. Steve concludes his post with this recommendation:

"If you are thinking of waiting for the market to show appreciation before selling your home, you have a two year wait not a one year wait. And if you are looking for double digit appreciation, it is five years away. Perhaps it is best to sell now and get on with the things in your life that caused you to think about moving in the first place".

Sell Now or Wait? What the Experts Are Saying

Excerpts from a blog post by Steve Harney on July 30, 2010 ·

......Is there any evidence that the market will come roaring back next spring? The evidence actually points to the exact opposite. Most experts are predicting that we will not see appreciation until the end of 2012 and even then the appreciation will be minimal...

......“The consensus indicates diminished confidence in the prospects for a near term recovery … This month, 60% of the panelists projected negative home price growth for 2010.”  That percentage was up from 40% just two months ago! 

......The experts are predicting that cumulative appreciation will not reach positive numbers until the end of 2012 and will still be under 10% by 2014.


Re-Blogged 16 times:

Re-Blogged By Re-Blogged At
  1. Deborah "Dee Dee" Garvin 07/31/2010 10:13 AM
  2. Lenn Harley 07/31/2010 11:59 PM
  3. Gabe Sanders 08/01/2010 01:09 AM
  4. Tony and Suzanne Marriott, Associate Brokers 08/01/2010 01:14 AM
  5. Leesa Finley 08/01/2010 01:30 AM
  6. Shirley Soforic 08/01/2010 01:30 AM
  7. Betty Knowles 08/01/2010 01:44 AM
  8. Bob Haywood 08/01/2010 01:50 AM
  9. Susan Laxson CRS 08/01/2010 02:37 AM
  10. Patricia Aulson 08/01/2010 05:46 AM
  11. Lori Cain 08/01/2010 07:00 AM
  12. Cheryl Ritchie 08/01/2010 08:10 AM
  13. Christopher Webster 08/01/2010 06:20 PM
  14. Erica Ramus 08/02/2010 03:06 AM
  15. Peter Clay - NoCo Home Team 08/02/2010 06:47 AM
  16. Diane Williams 08/06/2010 09:26 PM
Home Selling
Illinois Kane County Saint Charles
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st charles il market update

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Jeff Belonger
Social Media - Infinity Home Mortgage Company, Inc - Cherry Hill, NJ
The FHA Expert - FHA Loans - FHA mortgages - USDA loans - VA Loans

Leslie...  in regards to your comment, I truly understand about the post exceeding so many words.  The last thing that we want to do is put our readers to sleep... lol  In any case, this is not at you, but at the so-called experts that make these statements that cover the whole United States.. and not talk about some market areas are different than others.  I know a particular area in PA that has increased about 12% in prices in the last 6 months.  Now, this is based on what the realtor wrote... look forward to your economic forecast.

jeff belonger

Aug 01, 2010 05:02 PM #94
Leslie Ebersole
Swanepoel T3 Group - Saint Charles, IL
I help brokers build businesses they love.

Sheldon: the title is pretty racy for me as a simple midwestern gal, but thanks!

Jon: Lenn sure is the driver of lots of activity, and I'm happy for all the comments and debate.

Aaron: I wish my crystal ball was in better working order. Clients want answers and sometimes they're just not there.

Michael: the listing history is a click a way for us, too. Sometimes computers are just a little too useful!

Christine: what I love about this is that a bunch of people from around the country chatted about stuff I'll be working on next week. Invaluable!

Chris: sometimes I think I should just shut up and go sit a few open houses to fill my time, but thanks for the kind words.

Aug 01, 2010 06:19 PM #95
Pamela Seley
West Coast Realty Division - Murrieta, CA
Residential Real Estate Agent serving SW RivCo CA

Leslie, great post and congratulations on your feature!  I say sell now, don't wait until next year to compete with the inventory and fallen prices.

Aug 01, 2010 06:50 PM #96
Terry Chenier
Homelife Glenayre Realty - Mission, BC


Timely post. I've been thinking the same thing. On the other hand, anything they want to buy will go up as well.

Aug 01, 2010 07:30 PM #97
Joshua Zargari
MJ Decorators Workshop LI staging and home decorating - Lynbrook, NY
MJ Decorators Workshop

Location, quality, supply and demand...

A great house in a great location will sell...

Aug 02, 2010 01:03 AM #98
Bruce Swedal
Denver, CO
Denver Real Estate

Prices here from May 2009 to May 2010 appreciated over 4%. Buyers are showing tendencies to be choosier. A home on the market is in a beauty contest and a pricing war. But if prepared properly and priced properly they will sell quickly.

Aug 02, 2010 02:32 AM #99
Jennifer Archambeault
Cardani Group, REALTORS® - Austin Texas - Austin, TX
An Austin Texas Realtor

Another very important issue that many are forgetting is there are thousands of ARM's coming due next year.  If these homeowners aren't able to refinance to secure a fixed rate - I have a feeling many will end up in a short sale or a foreclosure situation.  Only time will tell - but my advise is to sell now even if you must take a slight loss because the benefits of buying low are huge right now.  Could prices drop another 8 to 10% - probably... will they - who knows! 

Aug 02, 2010 02:42 AM #100
Leslie Ebersole
Swanepoel T3 Group - Saint Charles, IL
I help brokers build businesses they love.

Jennifer: I couldn't agree more. The closed sales prices have ticked up, but the inventory is also increasing. In our areas, about 10% of the total number of listings has closed each month since January, but the total number of new listings is increasing each month.

Bruce: Median closed prices in our area have slightly trended up, but the inventory is remaining high, from 9 months at the very low end to over 8 years at the very high end. Yes, the proverbial price war and beauty contest is firmly in place.

Joshua: Some great houses will sell. At many price points, there simly aren't enough buyers. Thanks for commenting.

Pamela: I'm going with the majority opinion -- sell now. Thanks!

Terry: Don;t you want to shake some people? They want their house to sell over market price but they want to buy at a deep discount. Phew!

Aug 02, 2010 02:56 AM #101
Erica Ramus
Erica Ramus - Ramus Realty Group - Pottsville, PA - Pottsville, PA
MRE, Schuylkill County PA Real Estate

Leslie--We get this question all the time. I reblogged.


Aug 02, 2010 03:06 AM #102
Bryan Robertson
Intero Real Estate - Los Altos, CA
Broker, Author, Speaker

First, let me start that any economist speculating as to the condition of the market next year should be locked in solitary confinement.  The mass media is slowing the recovery by placing doubt in sellers minds with absolutely NO real basis for their claims.

Second, market timing in real estate is just as it is in stocks, if you can see the top or bottom you've missed it.  Waiting 12-18 months for a "hot" market is purely driven by FUD (fear, uncertainty, an doubt) relative to the market NOW.  If the seller is motivated now, then sell now.  They've got real reasons for selling so price for the current market and move ahead.

On a $300K house the potential few points loss or gain bought by waiting months is small.  I'd advise them to continue to move ahead, adjust the price as needed, and find their new home.  They'll be less stressed by the prospect of trying to sell again in the future and will be able to settle in their new home focused on more important things.

Aug 02, 2010 03:28 AM #103
The 1410 Group of Benchmark Realty, LLC
Benchmark Realty - Franklin, TN

Someone just asked me the other day how the Nashville real estate market was doing. I basically said "nothing". Sure, things have SLOWLY climbed but that is simply something to tell our buyers and sellers ("The market is on the way up"). Sure it is now but it is so slow that I do not foresee anything major between now and next summer. I agree with Bryan, the real estate market is like the stick market. You can't really time it. LONG TERM is key:)

Nashville twitter nashville facebook  Nashville short sales  Nashville MLS search

Aug 02, 2010 05:00 AM #104
Manuel Monserrate
Raleigh, NC

I say it depends on the seller... if you need to get on with your life and you need the money, then sure, it makes sense to 'cut your losses short' and sell as quickly as possible.  But if you're not in that situation, then hold on for a couple of years if you can.  Or rent out the place if you don't necessarily need the money right away.  There are choices in every market, I think.  Of course, you might be in a really bad situation, but nevertheless, the choices are the same.  Sell, rent, or wait.


Aug 02, 2010 06:06 AM #105
Joni Bailey
Berkshire Hathaway Home Services - Anderson Properties - Huntsville, TX
Your Huntsville / Lake Livingston Area REALTOR®

No matter what the market is doing, it depends on the needs of the seller. This post is exactly what the seller's are asking around here. Do I lower my price, take it off the market, or what? The answer depends on what you "need" to do. Great post!

Aug 02, 2010 06:53 AM #106
Vince McEveety
Gilleran Griffin Realty - Sherman Oaks, CA

Mr and Mrs Seller... you said you wanted to sell.  has there ever been a time in your life where you had to give up x to get x?  this time is just like that time.  giving up the price you hoped to get will be getting you x and further... if you wait would it trouble you if you got x less?

Aug 02, 2010 07:41 AM #107
Kathy Kenney
Keller Williams, Princeton, NJ - Robbinsville, NJ
Realtor - Princeton & Central NJ Homes for Sale

Ya gotta be in it to win it!  No sense to deal with the unknown, do what you have to do now to get it sold.

Aug 02, 2010 08:22 AM #108
Leslie Ebersole
Swanepoel T3 Group - Saint Charles, IL
I help brokers build businesses they love.

Erica: Thanks, I hope our sellers will be realistic about market conditions.

Bryan:I don't know about locking up those poor economists unless they can all have each other for company! I guess we have no thoughts at all of waiting for a hot market, here in the midwest we don't like all that much excitement ;-) Thanks for commenting.

Stephen: Every market is different, and for us the under $400,000 homes are selling pretty well. The upper end and townhouses are struggling. Thanks for sharing a realistic view.

Joni: Ah ha! The conflict between "need" and "want" truly is the dilemma, isn't it!

Vince: Wouldn't it be great if we could call on each other's clients and have your kind of straight talk. I plan on using your line in a phone call tonight, thanks.

Kathy: I agree, but sometimes those darn clients think we should be able to predict the future.

Aug 02, 2010 12:49 PM #109
Debe Maxwell, CRS
www.AtHomesCharlotte.com | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | (704) 491-3310 - Charlotte, NC
Charlotte Homes for Sale - Charlotte Neighborhoods

Hi Leslie!  Great post and the final numbers of the experts' consensus on housing is truly a bit depressing.  I have to say though, I've had many sellers ask me this question and I think that it's all determined by their motivation--why do they need to move and how soon.  If they can hang onto their home and wait until 2012, they're going to be paying a higher price for the one that they purchase as well--it's all relevent. 

Aug 03, 2010 06:02 PM #110
Bill Travis
Captain Bill Realty, LLC - Gilbert, AZ

Leslie I think it depends on the sellers needs. If they are going to sell and buy another home, then it's a trade off. The home they're buying will be a bargain.

Aug 04, 2010 01:53 AM #111
Leslie Ebersole
Swanepoel T3 Group - Saint Charles, IL
I help brokers build businesses they love.

Debe, Bill: It's a double edged sword: some people who are motivated may not have sufficient equity to sell, so their reasoning is that rising prices (their wish)  will at least get them out the current home, even if they will end up paying more for their new place in the future.

Thanks for commmenting.









Aug 04, 2010 03:35 AM #112
Diane Williams
Pell City, AL

If you need to sell your home what better time then now to do it.  In this area we are seeing a small increase in sales. With that news you will see more homes come on the market to compete with. 

Aug 06, 2010 09:12 PM #113
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