Daily Rate Lock Advice & Mortgage Market Update

DAILY MORTGAGE RATE LOCK ADVICE
August 17, 2010, 10:30 PT

LOCK ADVICE CHANGES SEVERAL TIMES DAILY CLICK FOR UPDATE

Today's Short Term Mortgage Rate lock Advice:  FLOAT With Caution
Points based on  Mortgage Backed Securities are up 0.26 Point. 
The earlier LOCK recommendation was removed because the MBS market seems to have settled down after its rise this morning.

Long Term Mortgage Rate Lock or Float Advice:  FLOAT.
This morning MBS prices move above, a long term resistance level they have been hovering  for about a week confirming continued low rates..  in recent weeks, MBS prices have cracked four long term resistance levels.  These breakthroughs are home runs for rate watchers because, once pierced, former resistance levels turn into support levels.

• National Average Fixed Rate Mortgage 
  Down 0.01% at 4.47% on Aug.16
• 10 Year Treasury on Aug 16: 2.58% Down -0.1%
• DJI Stocks Currently $10,476.77,  Up 174.76, 1.7%
• Asia & Europe Indexes Up 0.836%
• Nymex Crude Oil Currently $76.32 Up  $1.08
  

FHA set To Increase Annual Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP) from 0.55% to 1.55%.  FHA Commissioner Dave Stevens said said he will use the new authority to raise the annual FHA premium to around 0.90%. The FHA will then lower the upfront premium to around 1.00%, following an increase in that premium to 2.25% from 1.75% earlier this year.
Read Official HUD Notice

• ___________________________________________________________

  California Rates 08-17-2010, 8:00 PT
  30 Year Fixed to $417,000
  Rate 4.000%  Point 1.875, APR 4.267%
  Rate 4.125%  Point 0.875, APR 4.233%
  Rate 4.250%  Rebate 0.125, APR 4.274%
  APR Based on $350,000 Loan at 80% LTV
  740 Credit Score - 30 Day Lock.
  Click for Quotes on FHA and VA loans With Detailed Cost Estimates.
   No Application Fee or Credit Report required

  ____________________________________________________________________________________

  MORTGAGE MARKET NEWS IN REVIEW

  Tuesday, August 17
  Housing Starts 546K,  555K was expected
  PPI 0.2%, 0.2% was expected
  Core PPI 0.3%, expeced 0.1%

  Monday, August 16,
  The Empire State index came in a little lower than expected

  Friday, August 13
  Lots of news today that could have effected Mortgage Rates but there were no surprises.
  Core CPI, Retail Sales, Retail Sales ex-Auto  all came in close to expetations, Consurmer Sentiment also came in close to expectations.

   

  Wednesday August 11
  The Trade Deficit was larger than expected which is good for mortgage rates and bad for the economy.

  Tuesday, August 10,
  Productivity is down almost 1% when it was expected to be up 1% without much effect on mortgage rates.

  Friday, August 6,
  Unemployment Rate came in at 9.5% as expected.
  July Non-Farm Payrolls fall more than expected which accounts for stocks and mortgage rates being down today. 

  Thursday, August 5
  Jobless claims came in at 479k and higher than expected.  The news seems to be helping mortgage rates so far this morning.

  Tuesday, August 3
  Personal Income came in a little lower than expected.
  Pending Home Sales Index June improved to -2.6% from -30.0%
  Factory Orders improved slightly from -1.4 to -1.2

  Monday, August 2
  The ISM Index indicated manufacturing improved more than expected.
  Construction Spending indicates improved new construction.
  Good news for the stock market and not so good for mortgage rates.

  Friday, July 30
  Advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 2.4% about as expected.
  Consumer Sentiment is 37.8% a little better than the expected 37.5%
  Chicago PMI is 62.3 and better than the expected 56.0.

  Thursday, July 29
  Jobless claims were 3,000 less than expected.
  Our best 30 year Fixed rate: 4.25%, 0.125 point, 4.317% APR

  Wednesday, July 28
  June Durable Orders declined -1.0% from May,
  Wednesday's best 30 year Fixed rate: 4.25%, 0.125 point, 4.317% APR 

  Tuesday, July 27
  Consumer Confidence report showed it slighly lower than expected.
  Tuesday's best 30 year Fixed rate : 4.25%, 0.375 point, 4.339% APR

  Monday, July 26
  New Home Sales report shows sales are up 24%.
  Monday's best 30 year fixed rate: 4.25%, 0.375 point, 4.362% APR

  Friday, July 23
  No economic data is scheduled today that would affect mortgage rates.

  Thursday July 22
  Jobless Claims were 464k, higher than the expected 450k..
  June Existing Home Sales fell 5% to 5.37M,

  Wednesday, July 21
  No economic data will be released today.  Fed Chief Bernanke will deliver the semi-annual testimony to Congress at 2:00 PM ET

  Tuesday July 20,
  Housing Starts came in at 549k, below expectations

  Thursday, July 15,
  today's Producer Price Index (PPI) is -0.5%, -0.1%  was expected
  Core PPI  came in as predicted
  Jobless Claims came in at 429K where 450k was expected

  Wednesday, July 14
  Import Prices ex-oil  were down
  Retail Sales are down more than expected

  Tuesday, July 13
  Trade Balance came in lower than expected without noticable affect on mortgage rates.

  Friday, July 9
  No economic date is scheduled today that could affect mortgage rates.

  Thursday, July 8
  Jobless claims were down 18,000 and slightly lower than expected.  The good news pushed mortgage rates up a bit during the day.

  Friday, July 2
  The economy lost 125,000 jobs in June, which was close to expectations.  The private sector added 83,000 jobs and 225,000 census workers lost their temporary work.

  Thursday, July 1
  Jobless claims came in higher than expected.
  Construction Spending and  Pending Home Sales were less than expected.
  ISM Incex was also less than anticipated. 
  Typically, poor economic news is good for mortgage rates.

  Wednesday, Jun 30
  Chicago PMI came in at 59.1 as expected and indicates an expanding economy.

  Tuesday, June 29,
  Consumer Confidence was lower than expected.
  The April Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed a rise of 0.8% from March, the first monthly increase since September.

  Monday, June 28
  Personal Income came in close to expectations. 
  MBS prices closed up 16/32 and many lenders inproved their mortgage rates midday.

  Friday, June 25
  Consumer Sentiment rose to the highest level since January 2008.

  Thursday, June 24
  Durable Orders were -1.1% when they ware expected  to be 2.8%
  Jobless Claims imporved slightly.

  Wednesday,  June 23
  New Home Sales dropped 33% from April, far below the consensus.

  The Fed made no change in the fed funds rate and Mortgage rates showed little reaction.

  Tuesday, June 22
  Existing Home Sales came in at 5.66M which was lower than expected. CPI inflation came in close to expectations with almost no effect on mortgage rates..

  Wednesday, June 16

  • Lots of news this morning and, so far, it has not significantly impacted mortgage rates.
  • May PPI fell -0.3% from April due to a decline in energy prices
  • PPI was 5.3% higher than one year ago
  • Core PPI  was 1.3% higher than one year ago.
  • May Housing Starts fell 10% to 593K.
  • Building Permits declined 6% to 574K, the lowest level in a year
  • The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index rose 7%, while the refinancing
  • activity index increased by 21%

  Tuesday, June 15
  The Empire State index came in close to expectations

  Friday, June 11
  MBS prices jumped  when Retail Sales came in lower than expected, lowering mortgage rates slightly at opening.

  Thursday, June 10
  Jobless claims came in at near expectations. 
  MBS prices dropped 25/32 causing several lenders to increase their mortgage rates mid day.

  Friday, June 4
  May Employment report showed a 431K job increase, which was lower than expected

  Thursday, June 3
  Lots of news that had no real effect on mortgage rates:
  Jobless Claims came in close to expectations.
  First quarter productivity was revised lower to 2.8% from 3.6%
  The Fed's  Lockhart said the Fed may have to begin hiking rates even while unemployment is considerably higher than before the recession.
  Factory Orders were 1.2, close to expectations
  ISM Services Index, 55.4 as predicted

  Wednesday, June 2
  April Pending Home Sales rose 6%, which was higher than expected.

  Tuesday, June 1
  Construction spending came in stronger than expected

  Friday, May 28
  Today's economic data was close to expectations and had little impact on mortgage rates today.
  The Chicago PMI manufacturing index fell to 59.7.
  April Personal Income rose 0.4%.
  The Core PCE price index, the Fed's inflation measure, increased at a low 1.2% annual rate.

  Thursday, May 27
  Today's mortgage rates are being hammered by the strong stock market.  Jobless Claims and GDP came in close to expectations and had little impact.

  Wednesday, May 26
  Durable Orders exceeded the consensus.
  April New Home Sales rose to an annual rate of 504K units, way above the consensus forecast of 425K, and the highest level since May 2008.

  Tuesday, May 25
  Tensions between North and South Korea have caused money to fly to safety. from stocks to bonds which helps mortgage rates.
  Consumer Confidence came in at 63.3, above the consensus forecast of 58.5 which helped  Stocks recover from down almost 300 earlier in the day.

  Monday, May 24
  Existing Home Sales were 5.77M, higher than the consensus of 5.65M.  The news did not effect mortgage rates.

  Friday, May 21
  No economic reports are scheduled today so mortgage rates will be primarily driven by the stock market.  DJI has recovered from down 148.73 shortly after the opening bell.

  Thursday, May 20
  Jobless claims higher than expected.   Stock market weakness is pushing Mortgage Rates down this morning.
  Oil prices fell as low as $65 per barrel, reaching the lowest level since July 2009. 

  Wednesday, May 19
  CPI inflation was very close to expectations at low levels.

  Tuesday, May 18
  Mixed Producer Price Index (PPI) and slightly increased Housing Starts which initially had little effect on MBS.   Later, the stock market  turned negative, which lifted MBS markets and lowered rates.

  Monday, May 17,
  The Empire State index fell short of the consensus forecast

  Friday, May 14
  Retail Sales came in close to expectations

  Thursday, May 13
  Weekly Jobless Claims at 444K, close to the consensus forecast of 440K. 
  Demand was close to average for the 30-yr auction.

  Wednesday, May 12
  The March Trade Deficit rose to $40.4 billion, which was a little higher than the consensus forecast.

  Tuesday, May 11
  Demand was stronger than average for the 3-yr auction,

  Monday, May 10
  The big news effecting stocks this morning is that the European Union will make available $1 trillion to support Greece and other European Union members which are experiencing economic troubles.

  Friday, May 7
  The economy added 290K jobs, above the consensus of 190K, while the Unemployment Rate rose to 9.9% from 9.7%.

  Thursday, May 6
  This morning, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 444K, close to the consensus forecast of 440K.

  Wednesday, May 5 - Bad news for EU is good news for US Mortgage Rates.
  Early this morning the ADP jobs estimate for April was expected at +30K, as reported +32K; March was revised by ADP from -23K to +19K. A good report on jobs but there was no reaction to it in markets that are completely consumed with the unraveling of events in Europe and concerns that the EU may be permanently altered as the crisis of debt defaults has not been contained. All focus now is on safety to US treasuries and fears of a stock market decline. US stock markets will suffer as the euro currency falls against the dollar, investors will be leery of buying US equities as the dollar strengthening takes away buying from European and foreign investors in general

  Lots of news today that could effect Mortgage Rates
  Core CPI, Retail Sales, Retail Sales ex-Auto  all came in close to expetations, Consurmer Sentiment will be published at 10 AM ET