Honest Mistakes, 20/20 Hindsight, No Surprises, Real Innovation and Double Dip ‘Psycho-Semantics’

Real Estate Technology with BoomTown

Haven’t been permeating self promotion through the typical social mediums very much lately, but I have been sporadically writing/blogging/’content creating’ over at HousingWatch.  So, for the 4 people who’ve asked me if I still type my opinions into a keyboard…

John Paulson was an interesting figure in the whole SEC vs Goldman Sachs stink-eye contest, which ultimately ended up with Goldman getting slapped on the wrist with a fine and restitution to damaged investors for ‘making a mistake‘.  Looks like J-Paul managed to stay out of range of any collateral damage and made billions by helping build the elegant piece of financial engineering that enabled Goldman to make their ‘mistake’…directly contributing to the housing bubble and subsequent *pop*.

Former Treasury secretary and Goldman Sachs exec Henry ‘Hank’ Paulson (of no relation to John) donned his 20/20 hindsight glasses for the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.  Too bad he didn’t practice what he preached while he was in the middle of it all…

Ben Bernanke the Federal Reserve Chairman warned about warning of pending warnings as to what the Feds future economic policy changes may look like.  This ‘no surprises’ strategy is intended not to spook investors and/or cause knee jerk reactions.  Unfortunately well prepped domestic policy changes wont do much to reduce the anxiety of investors as global headline news continues to cause such spooky, knee-jerk reactions…but thanks for the warning ahead of the warnings about your read and react strategy Ben.

More in line with the real estate (and mortgage) markets proper, I started a series about how some realinnovation was required in the aspects of business and cost modeling for the industry’s to change in meaningful ways.  New sexy search UI’s and social media are fun and all but they do little to address the core problems at hand.  Beauty is only skin deep and the insides of these industries are nothing short of fugly.

Politics tend to get in the way of meaningful change when it comes to the real estate industry, evidenced by the strong aversion from real estate professionals to offering consumers a peek into their professional track records or ‘report card‘.  The Houston Association of Realtors (HAR) launched an Agent match product that was by most accounts very benign in regards to the information being displayed for public consumption.  Nonetheless they had to take the product down within 48 hours of its official launch because inmates run the asylum in real estate-land.  Thats sad.  I applaud Bob Hale of HAR for having the guts to push for this type of initiative and believe he is 100% correct when stating: ‘It will happen outside of the industry, and everybody will be mad’.

Another Captain Obvious moment- Alan Greenspan.  The former Fed Chairman really stepped out on a limb recently by prognosticating that another dip in home prices could cause a double-dip in the overall economy.  Never mind that no one can agree on what really constitues a double dip recession, outside of the notion that the economy shrinks, then grows, then shrinks again, then…doesn’t the economy do this all the time?  Double dip, W-shaped, recession, depression, correction…all economic semantics for:  Our economy is going nowhere fast with long term issues like high unemployment, shadow inventory and mortgage underwriting standards so tight you couldn’t pull a pin out of a lenders ass with a John Deere tractor…

Comments (4)

Suzanne McLaughlin
Sabinske & Associates, Inc. (Albertville, St. Michael) - Saint Michael, MN
Sabinske & Associates, Realtor

Love the "golden parachute" "Hank" Paulson created for himself by going to BP!  Great move! 

Aug 18, 2010 05:43 AM
David Monsour
Keller Williams Keystone Realty - Gettysburg, PA
ABR - www.realty-insights.com

I quite enjoy your posts I'll have to jump over to that other site and subcribe.

Aug 18, 2010 07:16 AM
Paul Slaybaugh
Realty Executives - Scottsdale, AZ
Scottsdale, AZ Real Estate

No f-bombs = unreadable. ;)

Aug 18, 2010 02:25 PM
Lane Bailey
Century 21 Results Realty - Suwanee, GA
Realtor & Car Guy

LOL @ #3... 

It isn't housing that will lead to a double dip... housing didn't and won't lead to anywhere... We are just a symptom. 

Maybe it's time for something REALLY radical... let the market try.  The government has tried everything else...


Aug 18, 2010 02:58 PM