Getting a handle on the real estate market is never easy. Is the market going up? Down? Flat? If you’re looking to buy or sell, the intensity can get ugly. You grab listing brochures, read the local paper and talk to your neighbors. Your hunting for facts.
We all know things are tough out there, but how tough is it really? I’m providing an inside look to a specific subdivision found in Meridian, Idaho.
Lochsa Falls.
I picked this development because it’s fairly new, has a variety of homes in it and it gives good representation for similar developments in the area.
Here’s a scatter plot chart to review. This chart include MLS listings since 1/1/2005. I’ve extracted the SOLD data from this chart, but will provide the sold scatter plot chart separately. I included a polynomial trend line through it (with an order of 5). The plots are placed in order of the price per square foot for each specific MLS listing. The X axis is the related time frame for which the listings were created.
You can see that from the start of 2005, the market price shot up like a rocket. The demand was so intense that inventory was selling faster then it could be built. It later cooled and has been regressing steadily since. Remember, this chart excludes the sold data.
Let’s take a look at the sold data.
Here we see a similar beginning, however the undulations of the previous chart don’t exist. It shows a much more gradual peak and now decline. The decline happened suddenly and abruptly. The question is how far will the chart decline and at what rate?
A negative forecast is supported by the recent news about credit availability, the number of home on the market and decline in employment sector.
Housing valuations are starting to slide backwards. How far and how fast are yet to be answered. If you are planning to sell, you better jump to the front of the curve or wait it out. The buyers are few and the listings are many.
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