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After The School Rush - Forecasting The Fall Real Estate Market

By
Real Estate Agent with Westcott Group Real Estate Company

Due to a technological glitch, my first-ever blog The School Rush Scramble was inadvertently deleted by Active Rain while attempting to fix a problem with my account.  Since the blog is no longer as timely as it was when it came out originally, I decided to put it back out there and add on to it to be more current.  Please forgive this unusual format.

THE SCHOOL RUSH SCRAMBLE (originally posted in early August)

 After having a slower spring than usual, the market on Long Island has picked up quite a bit over the summer.  It seems as though the buyers and sellers are finally getting closer to being on the same page, after waging quite a battle between the seller's market which is clearly over, and the buyer's market which is in full force.  Inventory is still much higher than it was a year ago, but at least there is some movement.  Much of the "log-jam" was caused by the buyers who needed to sell first before making a purchase. 

With all of the media doom and gloom, it seems like 1st time homebuyers were trying to predict a bottom before making a purchasing decision.  As we all know, it's virtually impossible to call a bottom of a market as an expert, much less as a novice, but it's difficult to convince people that they don't have all of the answers.

It seems that much of this summer rush is being caused by buyers that are desperately trying to get their kids registered for school in a new district.  It will be interesting to see what happens come September, when it will be past the time to get the kids registered to start the year.  One of the sellers that I'm working with, who is also a buyer, spoke to a local school district and found that he was able to register his children in the new district without having closed on his new home.  All he needed was to show a purchase agreement for his home in the new district.  I'm not sure if all districts work this way, but it is good information to have in case anyone is still considering making a move in August.

This is my first blog (of many) on Active Rain.  I'm working on some exciting new projects in the relocation field, and I'll be blogging about all new developments in the coming months.  For now, anyone interested in learning more about relocating Long Islanders can check out http://www.thelireloguy.com/

Many of my referrals will be outbound referrals to relocation destinations.  However, I'm never too busy for any referrals that you may have if you know of any Long Islanders that need to sell their home to relocate to other parts of the country.  In fact, I even offer a special relocation package.  For more information, please feel free to contact me directly.  Thank you.

 

That above was my first attempt a blog.  I feel that I've grown a lot by virtue of experience and exposure to other Active Rainers.  Below is the addendum to this blog discussing what happens next.

 

 The School Rush Scramble was written just before the most recent developments in the mortgage industry, which has obviously changed the landscape of the real estate industry.  Basically all of the momentum that finally started to build with a very busy July came to a grinding halt in August as the proverbial wheels fell off the bus of the mortgage industry creating a drag on the overall real estate market.

  

The buyers and sellers that were most affected were the ones that were already in the pipeline, but what will happen now with the new buyers and sellers entering the market?  Have they already made the necessary adjustments to deal with the changing times, or are they still waiting it out to see what is going to happen going forward with the mortgage industry, more specifically, the Jumbo market which has altered the buying power of many buyers in one fell swoop?  It also has cut the legs out from under sellers that were relying on buyers using this type of loan to purchase their home.

 

After a relatively slow spring, it seemed like the weight was starting to lift off of the market in July and early August.  Now that the market has hit a wall again, I'm curious to see what others think will happen in the fall.  Are we in for another slowdown?  Will buyers look at this as an opportunity to get a good deal (which would be wise)?  Or are buyers going to wait and see what happens to the mortgage rates and go back to sitting on the sidelines as many did this spring (which could be risky)?  Will sellers decide to pull their homes off of the market and come back in the spring when the picture becomes less cloudy?

 

Please share your forecast of what you think this fall is going to bring in the real estate market.

 

Lane Bailey
Century 21 Results Realty - Suwanee, GA
Realtor & Car Guy
Here is my take on it locally here in the Atlanta suburbs.  I am still standing by what I said there.  Of course, I could be wrong.  Actually, you might also look at my market reports as I tend to make predictions there, too. 
Aug 23, 2007 09:34 AM
Jim Crawford
Long & Foster - Fredericksburg, VA
Jim Crawford Broker Associate Fredericksburg VA
Great thought provoking post.  Usually the Atlanta market has died after school started for the last few years.  We became a very local market in the last few years.  Before that we never missed a beat when everyone was moving to Atlanta.   This sub-prime mortgage stuff really has us all guessing.  I do not see a quick recovery.  This situation did not happen overnight, nor will it fix itself overnight.
Aug 23, 2007 10:29 AM
Adam Waldman
Westcott Group Real Estate Company - Hauppauge, NY
Realtor - Long Island
LANE:  Thank you for your comment.  I read your blog and I see that you think that things look bad, but maybe not as bad as the doom and gloom statements that we are bombarded with everyday.  I'm just not sure what to think.  This could be a rough fall.
Aug 23, 2007 11:46 AM
Adam Waldman
Westcott Group Real Estate Company - Hauppauge, NY
Realtor - Long Island
JIM:  Thanks for your comment.  It's good to have you back around.  I know that you must have been busy with your move.  I hope that you're settling in ok.  At this point, I'd be happy with stabilized and an uptick in activity.  The subprime stuff is not helping here, and neither is the Jumbo situation.  I'm hoping for the best, but I'm prepared for that to not be the case.
Aug 23, 2007 11:48 AM