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I'm officially retiring my crystal ball

By
Real Estate Agent with Select Realty Professionals

Green Crystal BallI read the news yesterday that the average interest rate on a 30 year fixed mortgage fell to a new record low of 4.36%. And that you can now get a a 15 year fixed rate mortgage for somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.86%. That was the last straw.

I'm packing up my crystal ball, because it clearly is not functioning properly.

I've been telling people for the last couple of years that I didn't think rates were going any lower. They couldn't right? I mean when you are staring a 5.5% interest rate in the face, and you have a father (hi, Dad!) who is constantly reminding you that back in his day in the real estate business you were ecstatic when rates dipped below 10%, it just seems too good to be true.

The thought that they might go lower? Well, that's just drunk talk.

And then back in the spring when the Fed stopped buying mortgages, everyone (and I mean everyone that expressed an opinion) said there was no way that rates weren't going to spike upwards. Personally, I didn't think the sky was falling but I was prepared for rates to go up to 6 or even 7%.

Obviously, that hasn't happened.

So I'm throwing the blasted piece of glass away. I am no longer going to tell anyone that I can't see rates going any lower.

And that's a sure way to make them go up.

Originally posted at JuliaOdom.com

Posted by

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Julia Odom enjoys long walks on the beach, debating the renovation vs. restoration question and hanging out with home inspectors.

Visit Chattanooga Real Estate News to search homes for sale or view the rest of her blog

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Comments(7)

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Scott Miller
Best Connections Realty - Boca Raton, FL
ifoundyourhome.com

Hi Julia.  My buddy that lives down the block from me told me that he was just approved for a mortgage with Charles Schwab of only 3.25% on an adjustable rate for 5 years.  He wants to move by then so he's seriously considering it.  3.25%.  Amazing.

 

 

Sep 01, 2010 05:33 AM
Josh & Julie Hambarian
Josh & Julie - Steele Realty. North County San Diego Coastal - Encinitas, CA

It is crazy.  I was talking to my uncle a while back when they were in the 5's and he could not believe it.  He said he had never heard of rates in the 5's his entire life and that I better buy something and take advantage of it.  I actually could'nt really get the loan for the house I wanted at the time, but right about now I sure am glad things played out the way they did! 

Sep 01, 2010 05:34 AM
Robert Rauf
CMG Home Loans - Toms River, NJ

These certainly are strange times. Record low rates that probably have WAY more upside potential than down. 

My first house I paid 11.25% on a fixed rate, and I was in the mortgage biz back then too, so today's rates are just crazy low!  LOCk EM in now!

Sep 01, 2010 05:36 AM
DONNA SINGH
Royal LePage Connect Realty - Toronto, ON

My crystal ball says rates will stay low for along time...too much uncertainty in the world, especially in the US.

Sep 01, 2010 05:42 AM
Ken Land
Fairway Independent Mortgage - Weddington, NC
NMLS#108157

I gave up long ago trying to predict where the rates were heading.  Clients ask all the time - "Do you think they will go lower?"  I just explain now that - Rates are very low, yes they could drop more slowly but as we learned time and time again - they go up a lot quicker than they go down so rather than being greedy to save another .25% or .125% in rate - lock and be happy.  With the market like it is and 30yr money in the low 4% range - life is good. 

I am amazed though when I quote a rate - say 4.375% 0pts and the person on the other side of the phone says - "I'm not paying that rate - its too high....."  In what world I have to ask......perceptions and reality sometimes just do not line up.

Sep 16, 2010 05:05 AM
Eagle Ridge Real Estate Agents
Eagle Ridge Realty - Gilroy, CA
Representing Buyers and Sellers in Eagle Ridge

Yes, I find rates incredibly low as well.  My dad had a 4.25% rate on his house back in 1965, and the house cost him $25,500-- and he thought he'd be eating hotdogs the rest of his life.  He Sold in 1989 for $325,000, and for every month he made his PITI payment of around $200, he had an appreciation of just over $1,000/month.  Not bad from an investment point of view.

Sep 24, 2010 07:52 PM
Julia Odom
Select Realty Professionals - Chattanooga, TN
Chattanooga Homes for Sale

Sounds like everyone is as confounded by these rates as I am. And yeah, I've had clients mention 4.5% rates as 'too high' HUH?

Sep 25, 2010 12:11 AM