A couple weeks ago, as noted here in my last blog post, the newspaper headlines and radio clips dramatically noted the fall in sales activity from June 2010 to July 2010. As it is now into September, here is a sneak peek at how the August sales statistics look for Naperville (single family homes only):
- median price was $408,000 for August sales, down 9% from August 2008 but down less than 1% from August 2009
- median price was down almost 10% from July 2010
- median price was up over 3% from June 2010
- there were 146 sales in August, up 43% from the 102 sales in July 2010. The 146 sales were the second highest for a month over the past two years
- to emphasize, two of the last three months of sales data account for the highest-selling months over the last two years (June 2010's 167 sales were the highest over the last 24 months)
Just as my blood pressure didn't rise too much when I saw that sales were down 39% from June to July, I'm not high-fiving every Realtor in my office because sales are up 43% in August as compared to July. The market continues its roller coaster ride as this chart demonstrates:
(graphic courtesy of AgentMetrics by Terradatum; was turned into an image from my research on September 2, 2010)
By mid-September, when the August sales data has been consumed and processed and is ready for release, which of these headlines do you expect to see on headlines and hear on the news?
- Median Price Drops Ten Percent
- Sales up 43 Percent
Call me cynical about the media but I'm guessing the public will see headline number one more than number two.
Statistics are going to be different for national trends (I'm not going to predict how national sales were in August) and, if I added all property types (condo/townhomes, multi-unit) or looked exclusively at new construction the numbers would paint a different statistical picture. That's the point, though. As a wise man once said, "Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say.”
On that note, here's wishing everyone a safe and fun Labor Day weekend. Visit again soon as I'll dive into the latest sales info even deeper this month and keep you up to date on the latest local industry news and trends.
As always, if you want specific market information that is not covered in this blog please do not hesitate to ask.
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