The Recession is Over – But Is it Really?

By
Real Estate Agent with GreatWest Realty DRE# 00827565

 

 


If you believe what national news media announced today, the recession is over.  In fact it's been over since July 2009.  That's 14 months ago, folks!  So why is it most Americans aren't feeling the love?

In July 2009, the California unemployment rate was 11.6%.  Today, it stands at 12.4%. 

Wall Street has fared better, with many companies posting profit, and sitting on cash they are wary of investing or using to begin hiring.
  The Dow closed up +145.77 points today (10,753.62).  The NASDAQ elevated +40.22 and closed at 2,355.83.  

Wall Street is improved, but Main Street is lagging behind, along with the housing industry.  Much depends on JOBS - JOBS - JOBS.  And consumer confidence!

The current economic indicators that judge these things, and declare whether we are - or are not, in a recession, remind us of the opening lines of Charles Dicken's novel, A Tale of Two Cities -"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, and we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way-in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some if its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only."

What are your thoughts?  Do you believe the recession is over?

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Re-Blogged 2 times:

Re-Blogged By Re-Blogged At
  1. Phil Stevenson, CRMP 09/22/2010 04:52 AM
  2. Victor Zuniga 09/24/2010 06:47 AM
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Rainmaker
2,516,336
Myrl Jeffcoat
GreatWest Realty - Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Real Estate Agent

Dawn - I think many of these groups and think tanks put an agenda in place, and then go about the business of trying to justify that agenda. 

Sep 22, 2010 08:16 AM #71
Rainmaker
2,516,336
Myrl Jeffcoat
GreatWest Realty - Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Real Estate Agent

Patricia - I think Housing, Jobs and Consumer Confidence need to improve significantly, before Main Street folks begin to believe we are coming out of recession.

Sep 22, 2010 08:17 AM #72
Rainmaker
2,516,336
Myrl Jeffcoat
GreatWest Realty - Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Real Estate Agent

Michael R. - I think you have hit on something!  Some folks are practicing Voodoo economics, so your hypothisis of what they reported has merit to me:-)

Sep 22, 2010 08:19 AM #73
Rainmaker
2,516,336
Myrl Jeffcoat
GreatWest Realty - Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Real Estate Agent

Mike S. - I Fully understand that!  I actually cook like that. But it never makes the news. . .LOL

Sep 22, 2010 08:22 AM #74
Rainer
5,331
Margaret Kees
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Metro Brokers - Acworth, GA

I agree with Sara from San Antonio - If people spread the news that 'it's over' maybe they will start believing it and acting like it. 

I remember all too well how every fifth word in the media was foreclosure.  Maybe if we speak it, it will become reality.  But frankly, I have not heard the media say enough good things to help balance all the negative of the past.

Sep 22, 2010 08:28 AM #75
Rainmaker
2,516,336
Myrl Jeffcoat
GreatWest Realty - Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Real Estate Agent

Tom M. - It certainly feels you may be right!  The spin doctors are rewriting history, and our perception of events:-)

Sep 22, 2010 03:03 PM #77
Rainmaker
2,516,336
Myrl Jeffcoat
GreatWest Realty - Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Real Estate Agent

Phil - Here's a metaphysical theory to toss out there then:  If the GDP means that Americans are producing more goods; but those goods are produced by only half the number of employees, because their coworkers were laid off, then that shouldn't matter - right!  Afterall, a recession (whether we are in one or not) is all about the GDP.  And unemployment, a depressed housing market really doesn't matters.  We simply ignore that data for criteria. . .hmmmm:-)

Sep 22, 2010 03:07 PM #78
Rainmaker
2,516,336
Myrl Jeffcoat
GreatWest Realty - Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Real Estate Agent

Mindy - Your following words hit it on the head, "The media is just repeating the press release from an academic think tank who are focused solely on GDP and Wall Street earnings. The lives (and wallets and jobs) of the American people are not even a part of their model."

Sep 22, 2010 03:09 PM #79
Rainmaker
2,516,336
Myrl Jeffcoat
GreatWest Realty - Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Real Estate Agent

Manuel - You're right, we would get an earful!  If the criteria is heavily weighted on the GDP, then American workers could be very efficient in producing product.  Even product they can no longer afford for themselves, but is exported to other countries for "our" corporations, which profit greatly. 

Sep 22, 2010 03:13 PM #80
Rainmaker
2,516,336
Myrl Jeffcoat
GreatWest Realty - Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Real Estate Agent

Guy - I think The National Bureau of Economic Research, is existing in a bubble!

Sep 22, 2010 03:15 PM #81
Rainmaker
2,516,336
Myrl Jeffcoat
GreatWest Realty - Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Real Estate Agent

Margaret - As much as I am usually pretty optimistic about things, I tend to draw a line in the sand when it comes to providing truthful information to clients and the public.  I have never been one to fluff or say, "The housing market only has one direction to go, and that direction is UP," or any other sayings that imply a hard prediction.  Afterall, none of us knows.  And I do not want to feel something that I implied about how markets will or will not go, influenced folks to make a decision that ultimately harmed them.

Sep 22, 2010 03:19 PM #82
Rainmaker
2,516,336
Myrl Jeffcoat
GreatWest Realty - Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Real Estate Agent

David - I also think it is just a matter of time!  All business is cyclic, with periods of ups and downs.

Sep 22, 2010 03:20 PM #83
Rainmaker
294,385
Marilyn Harrell
ReMax Riverhaven - Beaverton, MI
Wixom Lake - Beaverton MI

How wonderful! Ha?

Sep 22, 2010 11:46 PM #84
Rainmaker
596,893
Jim Hale
ACTIONAGENTS.NET - Eugene, OR
Eugene Oregon's Best Home Search Website

Mission Accomplished!

I'm surprised the anouncement was not made from the deck of an aircraft carrier.

Sep 22, 2010 11:55 PM #85
Rainmaker
643,145
Marchel Peterson
Results Realty - Spring, TX
Spring TX Real Estate E-Pro

Myrl, We listen to a local investment show called Street Talk and they discussed this tonight.  They said in June of last year we had the cash for clunkers and the first time home buyers that gave us a false report.

Sep 23, 2010 03:12 PM #86
Rainmaker
2,516,336
Myrl Jeffcoat
GreatWest Realty - Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Real Estate Agent

Jim - That's an excellent analogy!

Marchel - That's exactly right!  The data is skewed because of the programs that were in place a year ago, but no longer exist!  We have yet to see whether this baby can fly on its own.  My feeling is that it will, but it will take time.

Sep 23, 2010 04:27 PM #87
Rainmaker
908,388
Pamela Seley
West Coast Realty Division - Murrieta, CA
Residential Real Estate Agent serving SW RivCo CA

Myrl, it's not over IMHO.  It will be years before the housing market becomes stable again.  The main issue is jobs and unemployment.  I'm sure as you know, in California, there are people who lost good paying jobs and with all their experience, can't find anything that comes close to paying what they were used to.  It's sad situation.  More homeowners will lost their homes until loan mods make any sense, and that will probably never happen.  Great post, well-deserved feature.

Sep 24, 2010 08:56 PM #88
Rainmaker
472,536
David Jirasek
Jirasek Realty - Temple, TX
ALC, CCIM

Our community is still not observing any improvement! Eventually it will recover, I've been through this before. If you skew the numbers enough, you can make an argument for your cause.

Sep 25, 2010 01:10 AM #89
Ambassador
920,196
Missy Caulk
Missy Caulk TEAM - Ann Arbor, MI
Savvy Realtor - Ann Arbor Real Estate

Nope not over...at least the majority of Americans don't "know" it. "feel it".

 

Sep 25, 2010 04:06 AM #90
Rainmaker
2,189,557
Elizabeth Weintraub Sacramento Realtor Top 1%
RE/MAX Gold - Sacramento, CA
Put 40 years of experience to work for you

Hey, Myrl, somehow I missed this most excellent post of yours.

When I heard the recession was over, I expected to see Allen Funt jump out from behind a potted plant and say, "Smile, You're on Candid Camera."

Sep 25, 2010 11:41 AM #91
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Myrl Jeffcoat

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