You know the story - Chicken Little believes the world is coming to an end - and hysterically passes on her (his?) belief to her neighbors that "the sky is falling - the sky is falling and Disaster is Imminent "- Until (in one of the many versions of this fable) a lion halts them, and investigates the cause of the panic and manages to restore calm by applying investigation and reasoning to Chicken Little's claims. We're about to live out this metaphor. Chicken Little is the Media who is about to have copious "data" at their fingertips that may look like it supports that the Sky is Falling - yet again - in Real Estate. Once 2010 October and November Sales close and the data is available for a comparison with 2009, we are about to be bombarded by statistics that will darken the skies with doom and gloom.
Realtors know that Sales were uncharacteristically high in Oct and November of 2009 as buyers managed to squeeze into what they thought was the last opportunity to take advantage of the tax credit. Did we actually see more sales in 2009 over 2010 year over year? That's the question to ask. Since most realtors would bet that an Oct 2009 to Oct 2010 comparison would show 2009 in the lead, we also know that many of those sales would have happened over a period of months but were forced in a shorter window (Oct/Nov ) because of the tax credt. So comparing Oct 2009 to Oct 2010 simply doesn't tell the entire story.
Realtors - There is a call to action here. Take a look today at how your area is doing year over year. I just came out of a meeting in my office where we did just that. In 5 of our primary towns, we're already exceeding the sales that happened in 2009 just with 2010 YTD figures. That is more telling than just comparing a month in 2009 to a month in 2010.
Be the LION - Be Ready - Prepare your data - because Chicken Little is about to claim the Sky is Falling Yet again. You may want to talk to your buyers and explain how it's critical to look at local data and a larger window than a month to month comparison. Be ready with reasoning and data to allay any fears your buyers may have about the market yet again about to fall. It is not. This is a very very slow recovery, but if you look at the local detail data, you do see recovery. Share that information with your buyers. They're not likely to hear it from the media.
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