Home > Blogs > George Fotion > Palos Verdes Homes

What are the chances of selling my Palos Verdes home in 30 days?

By George Fotion

Real Estate Agent with Call Realty Company

September 22, 2010 06:44 PM

The World's SECOND oldest profession...

Let's face it, for as long as the business of real estate agency has been around, there have been plenty of agents that will say anything just to "get the listing". It sort of makes real estate brokerage the world's "2nd oldest profession".

In fact we in the business sometimes call this behavior by agents (some would even say most of the agents) "buying the listing".

For example, I've talked to dozens and dozens of sellers over my 30 years in the business who've told me when I was interviewing, "George, Agent Madame X says that they can get my home sold in less than 30 days and for a lot more than what you say you say it's worth".

There are a couple of points in that type of statement that get me going. First, it's not an agent that determines what your property's worth - it's the market. Second, and to the point of this article, on what facts is Agent Madame X making her assertion.

Let's look at the facts of what the market is now on the Palos Verdes Peninsula. The numbers do not lie.

Fact 1:	In the last 12 months there have been 506 homes sold (to date 9/22/2010)
Fact 2:	There are now 241 active listings of homes on the market
Fact 3:	Based on these 2 numbers, inventory is turning over 2.0996 times per year
Fact 4:	That means the average days on market for a home on the Palos Verdes Peninsula is about 174 days

Now it's getting interesting! So the first thing you should be thinking about when interviewing an agent is, are they telling you the truth about "days on market" and just as importantly, do they even have the vaguest idea about how to accurately advise you as to what is the probability of selling!?

The next step is determining the probability of selling across an array of days. If 174 days is the average for the market, as it is now for homes on the Peninsula, what's the probability of selling in 30 days? 60 days? within 90 days? How do you determine these odds.

Using standard deviation analysis, the math tells us the truth about the market. For the Palos Verdes Peninsula, you have only an 11.40% chance of selling in 30 days, a 17% chance in 60 days, and only a 24% chance of selling in 90 days. Interesting. So when Agent Madame X, tells you, "Oh Darling, we will get your home sold in 30 days no problem" .... now you've got the facts to understand the "2nd Oldest Profession". This article was written on 9/22/2010 and if you want a customized report for your home at whatever time you're reading this article, just send me an email.

So what can help you increase your odds of selling? Having an aggressive pro-active marketing strategy certainly is vital, but so too is choosing the right price. And you would be right in thinking that if agents smoke screen the facts about days on market and the probability of selling your home, then can you imagine what many do about the pricing of your home?

You would also be right in assuming that I have a objective, quantifiable model also based on facts for getting your home priced right. You're welcome to contact me, whether or not you're thinking of selling to learn more about the method and what your home's current market value is. Meanwhile, enjoy using these free tools from my website: (And please do click the "Like" icon at the top of the page for http://www.homeispalosverdes.com - Thank you!

What's My House Worth