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Applying Economic Data to Interest Rate Volatility

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Real Estate Broker/Owner with Steelbridge Realty LLC
Applying Economic Data to Interest Rate Volatility   Bull
  • Treasury's safe haven as 10yr bouncing off 4.50% support range.
  • Fed Fund's contract today show trader's see a 44% chance the Fed will lower its target for overnight bank lending to 4.75% form 5.25% at its next meeting on September 18th.
Neutral
  • Indy Mac said it would hire about 800 former employees of American Home Mortgage Investment Co., & take over 90 of the lenders direct-to-consumer offices to make prime loans.
  • LandAmerica Financial Group will cut 1,100 jobs in the 2nd half of 2007 to reduce costs as mortgage originations decline.
  Bear
  • Per Fitch - US housing market is likely to be more severe than anticipated during the rest of 2007, mainly due to tighter mortgage standards & disrupted mortgage markets.
    • 2008 will be a challenging year for the housing sector
    • Lowered its ratings to a negative outlook on most homebuilders
      • Expects revenues to drop 30% to 35% on average
      • Pre-tax profit to plummet 75% to 80%
    • It considers excess inventory as the most challenging issue for housing
  • US stock's advanced as improved earnings prospects for technology & energy companies:
    • Apple Inc unveil it new iPod media player
    • Seagate Technology said its hard-disk drives for computers sales climbed on back-to-school season.
    • Exxon led energy higher after crude oil prices gained
  • Fed Minutes:
    • Fed officials had underestimated the contagion from sub-prime credit markets to less risky borrowers
    • Policy makers forecast housing would restrain growth "for some time" and developments in mortgage markets suggested.
    • The Fed is not convinced that a slowdown in inflation would last
      • INFLATION REMAINS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT POLICY RISK
  • Structured Investment Vehicles - Commercial Paper - are facing shortages as investors refuse to buy debt instruments secured by asset back commercial paper
  • One Year ARM rates jumped to 6.51% from 5.84% and greater than 30yr fixed rates for the first time ever

Comments(1)

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Robert Monk
100% Realty, Inc. - Santa Rosa Beach, FL
Florida Real Estate
Excellent post!  We need a chrystal ball to understand the direction interest rates will take!  Robert
Aug 29, 2007 05:20 AM