Conformation Bias in RE

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Steelbridge Realty LLC

In psychology and cognitive science, confirmation bias is a tendency to search for or interpret new information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions and avoid information and interpretations which contradict prior beliefs. It is a type of cognitive bias and represents an error of inductive inference, or as a form of selection bias toward confirmation of the hypothesis under study or disconfirmation of an alternative hypothesis.

Confirmation bias is an area of interest in the teaching of critical thinking as the skill is misused if rigorous critical scrutiny is applied only to evidence challenging a preconceived idea but not to evidence supporting the same preconception.[1]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

I have found that RE people suffer from this. When you look at numbers ( you should look at your farm markets numbers a lot) do you pick out all the modalitys or just the ones that support your views/idea's? I have had to deprogram some of my thought proces to really see whats there. Most RE people tend to be " the glas is half full types". This conformation Bias is a liablity then. As you may overlook some details. Please reply with thoughts

Comments (8)

Toby Boyce
C.G. Boyce Real Estate Co. - Delaware, OH
MBA, Delaware Ohio

Jeff,

Interesting thought and I'm sure it is something that we all suffer from on different levels. However, I think it depends on the hat that we are wearing as to how we read even your question.

I showed 20 houses to a young couple in the greater Westerville area this past weekend and they really liked one at the end of day one. So I did a CMA for them, did I look at it differently than I would have if the seller had come to me originally? Of course, I did. I realized quickly that the active comps were all of different price than the sold comps were. I presented it to my clients in that manner ... here is where the active listings are priced, and they are active for a reason, because here is where the SOLD listings were priced. We have room to negotiate with them and make something happen.

If it was my listing would I have been as upfront with my sellers? I would have told them about it, not sure they would have listened, but it would have been part of the discussion.

As to RE professionals turning a blind eye to negatives and only having "rose-colored" glasses on, I think that is a front. There are a lot of "members only" posts on Active Rain where members have let the guard down.

Sep 04, 2007 05:22 AM
Jeff Tumbarello
Steelbridge Realty LLC - North Fort Myers, FL
i have some interest in college housing in delaware, thoughts?
Sep 04, 2007 05:36 AM
Christopher Benedict
BIG Realty - Collegeville, PA
AskTheBigGuy
My thoughts are holy cow I am not sure I can digest all that without at least another cup of coffee.  How about in english, lol?
Sep 04, 2007 05:41 AM
Bill Gillhespy
16 Sunview Blvd - Fort Myers Beach, FL
Fort Myers Beach Realtor, Fort Myers Beach Agent - Homes & Condos
Hi Jeff,  Nice to see a post which gets away from strictly real estate but which has definite applications for us all.  I can't argue that the filtering/bias is always present and that it depends on which side of the transaction you might be on.  Nevertheless, our training, and the net effect of our real estate experience, helps to mitigate this effect.  Thanks for s good post.
Sep 04, 2007 05:49 AM
Jeff Tumbarello
Steelbridge Realty LLC - North Fort Myers, FL

Chris.. I feel ya

 

Bill... thanks for the kind words

Sep 04, 2007 05:52 AM
Tim Bradford
Cleveland, OH
NMLS 250013
Great Post, Jeff...........    I assume the post will say something different to each person that reads it.   For me it says, Listen more to the client, hear what they are saying not what you want to be hearing.  
Sep 05, 2007 03:10 AM
Jeff Tumbarello
Steelbridge Realty LLC - North Fort Myers, FL

Tim

LOL

the fact that you relate it to clients, shows the bias,! LOL

Sep 05, 2007 10:36 AM
Jeff Tumbarello
Steelbridge Realty LLC - North Fort Myers, FL

Toby

you confuse the bias to identify somebased on a pre-dispositioned bias, to ethics,

ethic's says you should have approached each deal the same, now human nature does not allow that for the most part, to be honest some bias cn be good, in the case above with westerville as an agent you should fel better about selling your own listing as you know it better, thats a form of bias as well. maybe not profit bias but comfort bias

Sep 05, 2007 10:49 AM

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