Mortgage Originations predictions for 2010 were for 1.3 Trillion. We have seen a large boost from the lowest mortgage rates in decades. As many mortgage home loans are in the money in regards to refinances thus leading to a large boost in spite of higher credit standards, what will next year look like. Many people are not able to take advantage of the low mortgage rates due to the required equity needed to complete a transaction. Even with the headwinds from very little equity and higher credit standards mortgage originations have been a pleasant surprise this year.
But what about next year? With many people having already refinanced and the economy still very weak and unemployment high what will next years numbers look like? One article I read this morning predicts that we will be looking at a 1 trillion dollar mortgage origination market. If that is the case, then we are looking at a 23% drop in mortgage loans created. That also will mean 23% less income for the mortgage originators and we assume less people buying homes as the percentage of purchase loans vs refinances will increase compared to this year as those who can refinance will have done so.
Not a very positive outlook. I don't agree however as I see confidence building and feel the experts are rarely correct.
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