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Mortgage bond prices were slightly positive for the week amid very choppy trading conditions. We started on a positive note for bonds with lower than expected PCE inflation data. Unfortunately a steep sell off emerged Monday afternoon as we headed into the elections and the Fed meeting. The Fed kept rates in check Wednesday as expected and announced continued quantitative easing. Unfortunately the payrolls figure of the employment report was stronger than expected Friday morning, which erased a lot of the gains seen earlier in the week. For the week interest rates finished better by about 1/8 to 1/4.
Trading This Week Market conditions that often lead to mortgage interest rate volatility are thin trading and shortened trading weeks. If very few market participants are buying and selling bonds, the potential for short-term volatility is escalated. A large buyer or seller can execute trading orders that, without additional traders to buffer out the extreme buying or selling, can lead to swift market movements. In addition, shortened trading weeks have the potential to compress a week's worth of trading into fewer days. Bond traders often take defensive positions ahead of weekends and holidays to guard against unforeseen events that could possibly jeopardize their investments. This positioning can be beneficial or detrimental to mortgage interest rates. If investors sell stocks and buy mortgage-backed securities, mortgage interest rates will improve. However, if investors sell mortgage-backed securities and hold cash positions, mortgage interest rates will rise. |
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