"House prices fall 2% SIGNS OF DOUBLE DIP?!?!?!?!"
http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/30/real_estate/CaseShiller_home_prices/index.htm?hpt=T2
And then the article doesn't even mention about the dreaded double dip. Sometimes national news media really frustrates me they latch on to a story and suggest future fears and concerns but then never expand upon it at all. Yet, in their title they say this might be signs of a double dip, and most people who see that article will only read some of the headlines and not the body of the print. I'll bet that a lot of people now are thinking that the nation is headed to a double dip, while if they would have read the entire piece there is no comment or speculation as to WHY or how a double dip would occur.
The article itself discusses the drop in house prices and the importance housing plays in this market. Additionally it mentioned that there are mixed opinions on the future of prices and trends with a large shadow inventory of homes waiting to come onto the market however the improving jobs and confidence reports suggest that our economy might be able to handle this shadow inventory as it comes out.
So, one could infer that this article might mean that housing prices could fall again but it doesn't even say how much, when, and what issues could result from it. Yes, this is a concern, however if CNN-Money is going to try to freak us out by saying a double dip is coming they should consider expanding upon that message rather than just putting it in the headline without directly addressing it. It seems the national media would rather jump out at us and yell, "BOO!" than actually go into depth on this story. The video is pretty good, they talk about people getting amazing deals and putting houses up to investors and home-owner occupant buyers at great prices, allowing a lot of once over-priced areas to become incredibly affordable again.
Grrr!
Ok, quick numbers check on Missoula this year, going by median price (keep in mind Q1 2009 was mostly pre tax-credit):
2009 Q1: $235,000
2009 Q2: $209,000
2009 Q3: $206,906
2009 Q4: $199,000
2010 Q1: $215,000
2010 Q2: $193,500
2010 Q3: $201,480
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So interestingly enough, Missoula is up a bit, but you can see the pretty wild variation in the median price. Q1 2009 there was a first time home buyer tax credit, however it was $7500 and there was a re-payment plan for it ($500 a year in your taxes) and come the middle of Q1 was when the $8000 credit as we know it came out, from there the 1st time homebuyer activity spiked and drove the median prices down. Now what's interesting is that 2010 Q3 and moving forward is post-tax credit for the most part, so how numbers will look from here on out will really give us an indication of how the market is.
So CNN says national house prices are down 2% from Q2 to Q3, but in Missoula they're up 4.1% from Q2 to Q3. However if you compare the 2009 Q3 to the 2010 Q3 you've got a price decrease of 2.6%. At the REALTOR (R) convention I kept hearing about continued "choppy" waters - looking at these numbers suggests just that!
Here's the charts, first one includes the outlier of Q1 2009 the second one removes that outlier, however you can see the trend that in general prices are still going down very gradually:
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