Here's an update from another trusted lender:
For the week of September 10, 2007
"The one thing we can be certain of is change."
-- Anonymous
Bulletin: The Mortgage and Real Estate Markets Are in Transition and So Is Inside Lending
The idea is to keep you informed about everything going on that's vital to your business; both to home sellers, and homebuyers. Information is power-the power to help our clien ts and prospects-and I want to make sure each week you have what you need to succeed.
Let's start with clearing up some of the media-fed muddle about today's mortgage market...
Mortgage Fact and Fiction:
| Fiction: | FACT: |
| 100% financing... gone | 100% loans available today! |
| Low doc loans... gone | Low doc loans available today! |
| Jumbo loans... gone | Jumbo loans available today! |
The mortgage industry is going through many changes. At times like these it's always better to know the facts. The credit market is clearly in turmoil, but there are still loans available for qualified borrowers!
Now more than ever, it's vital to work with someone whose qualifications and experience can give you and your clients the peace of mind that comes with an on time, no surprise closing. Please call me for the latest facts about the current mortgage market. For qualified clients, there are solutions available!
>> The Review of Last Week
The great physicist wouldn't have been surprised with how predictions for August jobs compared to last week's published report. Economists had forecast payrolls would increase for the month by 110,000 new jobs. Last Friday, the Labor Department reported that payrolls actually dropped by 4,000 jobs in August, the first time they fell in four years. The Wall Street crowd had been waiting for the figures all week, trying to sense the overall economy. Needless to say, they freaked out on the fake out and the Dow fell 249.97, or 1.87 perce nt, to 13,113.38. They must have missed the fact that the unemployment rate held steady at 4.6 percent as expected.
No matter. Bonds benefited from the news, positively affecting home loan rates, which improved from .125% to .25% on conforming loans. The tough August Jobs Report also makes it more likely the Feds will cut the Fed Funds Rate at their September 18 meeting. Some analysts now look for a .50% cut, not just the .25% that had been talked about. Of course, lower borrowing costs would help everything from Home Equity Lines to credit cards.
>> This Week's Forecast
The big news for the coming week will be around the August Retail Sales report, coming out Friday. Investors want to see if August's financial market volatility put the brakes on consumer spending. If the numbers come in strong, that will help Stocks and hurt Bonds, potentially raising home loan rates. Conversely, weak retail sales will strengthen Bonds and improve home loan rates.Also expect lots of yak around, "What will the Fed do on September 18." Lowering rates will get things moving in the economy. Equally important, any more slides in the Stock market will also help Bonds and home loan rates.
>> The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar
Economic Calendar for the Week of Sept 10 - Sept 14
| Date | Time (ET) | Release | For | Consensus | Prior |
| Sep 10 | 15:00 | Consumer Credit | Jul | $8.5B | $13.2B |
| Sep 11 | 08:30 | Trade Balance | Jul | -$59.0B | -$58.1B |
| Sep 13 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 09/08 | 325K | 318K |
| Sep 14 | 08:30 | Retail Sales | Aug | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Sep 14 | 08:30 | Retail Sales ex-auto | Aug | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Sep 14 | 09:15 | Industrial Production | Aug | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Sep 14 | 09:15 | Capacity Utilization | Aug | 82.0% | 81.9% |
| Sep 14 | 10:00 | Mich Sentiment-Prel. | Sep | 83.5 | 83.4 |
>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting the Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months.
Current Fed Fund Rate: 5.25%| After FOMC meeting on: | Consensus |
| Sept 18 | 5.00% |
| Oct 31 | 4.75% |
| March 18 | 4.75% |
Odds of change from current policy:
| After FOMC meeting on: | Consensus |
| Sept 18 | 75% |
| Oct 31 | 88% |
| March 18 | 94% |
Mike Nooning
Licensed in Missouri & Kansas
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