Do You Live in a Risky Market?

Real Estate Agent with Live Local Real Estate Group

The St. Louis real estate market is holding its own according to the third quarter PMI statistics!

Each quarter the PMI Institute releases its list of the Riskiest and Safest Real Estate markets. You can read more about who the PMI Institute is and how they calculate the numbers at the bottom of their third quarter release.

Different real estate markets are ranked based on the percentage probability of a 10-percent-plus drop in value in the next two years. Here are the riskiest markets, according to the PMI Institute:

Top 10 (Most Dangerous) on the PMI index:

  1. San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA            603     (highest risk)   
  2. Nassau-Suffolk, NY  (MSAD)                           601   
  3. Boston-Quincy, MA  (MSAD)                           600  
  4. Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA                      599
  5. Sacramento-Arden-Arcade- Roseville, CA         598
  6. Riverside-San Bernardino- Ontario, CA            596
  7. Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA                      596
  8. Los Angeles-Long Beach- Glendale, CA           590
  9. Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA         590
  10. San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA      589

And The Bottom (Safest) Fifteen Markets:

  1. Pittsburgh, PA                                         61         (lowest risk)
  2. Indianapolis-Carmel IN                             63
  3. Memphis, TN-MS-AR                                 68
  4. Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN                 72
  5. Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH                        74
  6. Columbus, OH                                           74
  7. Fort Worth-Arlington, TX                             76
  8. San Antonia, TX                                         78
  9. Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN            86
  10. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX                 88  
  11. Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX                                89
  12. Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC              98
  13. Kansas City, MO-KS                                   109
  14. Austin-Round Rock, TX                              114      
  15. St. Louis, MO-IL                                                  133           (St Louis Metro Area #15)

The PMI Economic and Real Estate Trends (ERET) containing the US Market Risk Index is published quarterly by PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., a subsidiary of The PMI Group, Inc. (NYSE:PMI). The Risk Index is a proprietary statistical model that measures geographic house-price risk by predicting the probability of a regional decline in home prices in the nation's 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and metropolitan statistical area divisions (MSADs) over the next two years. The PMI US Market Risk Index is based on the House Price Index from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), labor market statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the PMI affordability index, which uses local median household income, home price appreciation, and the price of a conventional mortgage to calculate the local share of mortgage payment to income relative to its baseline year of 1995.

The whole release at PMI U.S. Market Risk Index

Comments (1)

Leigh Brown
Leigh Brown & Associates, RE/MAX Executive - Charlotte, NC
CEO, Dream Maker - Charlotte, NC
i love being in the bottom 15 sometimes (we're number 12-woo hoo!). =)
Nov 13, 2006 10:58 AM