In the world of mortgage rates there are varying degrees of opportunity, all of which are dependent on your wants and needs.
Making the decision to lock based on a near term economic event, such as the Employment Situation Report last week, would imply you're judging opportunities based on a sensitive lock/float timeline. As in, you must close your loan in the next 30 days and cannot afford to lose your current market rate quote.
On the other end of the sensitivity spectrum we find the folks feeling sorta "ho-hum" about the whole lock/float thing. This group isn't numb to upward movements in mortgage rates, but their current payment is more than acceptable. This group needs a total reversal of fortunes. It needs a return to rates below 4.00%, or the deal just doesn't make "cents". This would take us back to the days when the "PHANTOM 3.5 MBS COUPON" were trading at will in the secondary mortgage market. Included in this group are many the folks who went down with the ship in December.
These are the two ends of the rate watcher sentiment spectrum.
Somewhere in the middle we find the medium term opportunist. Right now you're thinking, "is this the end of all-time low mortgage rates?". Your refinance option is "in the money", but not by much and you're not totally attached to the idea of going through an intense fiscal frisking as part of the underwriting process. This makes you very sensitive to another trend of rising mortgage rates, but sorta mixed on whether or not it's time to "pull the trigger". You are qualified. Have applied for a loan. Your appraisal is completed. You're just waiting for one more shot at those record lows...if you don't see it soon, you're gonna take what you can get and move on.
For the medium term opportunist, we are encouraged by the relative stability seen in the mortgage market lately. After a long trend of rapidly rising mortgage rates, we have enjoyed a period stability and even a bit of positive progress! This supports our theory that the December jump in mortgage rates was exaggerated by thin holiday trading conditions and year-end balance sheet positioning. It gives us hope.
So where does this leave us going into the middle of winter? Are we going to see a correction in the stock market as lack-luster results come out on wall street favorites. Are will the general trend toward economic expansion and recovery continue. Its a tough call. But after what we've been through in the past 2 years, I don't think we are quite out of the woods yet. And real-estate construction and sales, a true leading economic indicator, doesn't seem to be carrying much momentum.
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