As done here in 2010, this blog will visit how 2011 sales statistics compare to past historical data. The stats are not easily mined and can not necessarily be utilized as a projection of future strength or weakness in the local marketplace. These statistics are courtesy of Terradatum's Broker Metrics which is provided to Realtors who are part of the Mainstreet Organization of REALTORS (which covers much of the Western Suburbs of Chicagoland).
Here is a summary of January 2011 single family home active, pending and closed sales in comparison to the fourth quarter of 2010 and January of 2009 and 2010:
Median price up
- Median price at $385,000 for Jan '11; up 3.6% from Jan '10 and 5% from Jan '09
- Median price at $385,000 for Jan '11 is up 5.3% from Dec '10 and 1.3% from Nov '10 (even from Oct '10)
Pending sales up
- Pending sales up 44% from Dec (78 versus 54)
- Pending sales up 26% from Jan '10 & up 58% from Jan '09
January sales (closings) steady
- January SFH Naperville sales (43) almost exactly the same as Jan '10 (44) and Jan '09 (40)
- From an absorption standpoint the January '11 sales in comparison to supply were up 9% compared to January 2010 and up 33% from January 2009
Supply of inventory down significantly
- Amount for sale down 1.1% from Dec '10
- Monthly supply of inventory down to 8.7; lowest since April '10
- Supply is down 24% from Jan '10 and down 38% from Jan '09
- Supply is down 32% from Dec '10, 19% from Nov '10, 22% from Oct '10
When analyzing these stats, it is important to note that the decline in supply levels could be the result of seasonality and the supply can be expected to rise as the area begins to thaw out and Spring nears.
Robert Headrick, owner of a local Real Estate appraisal and consultant company, points toward what to look for in the coming months.
"This Spring should tell us a much more accurate story as we find out if the ground work has been set for a housing recovery assuming no government/outside intervention materializes," said Headrick in his most recent Market Pulse Report written to area real estate professionals.
Headrick also notes that "the ongoing volatility of the economy makes for extremely difficult interpretation of this housing market" and importantly says that "attempts to analyze Median Prices have never been a reliable indicator to develop Market Change Adjustments."
Please feel free, as always, to contact me if you'd like more specific sales data when it comes to your neighborhood or property type and I would be happy to supply information to you.