It has been a harrowing few years in real estate markets across the nation and even the East Bay home values have been seriously impacted by the economic downturn. Can we look forward to better times in 2011? Is there at least a light at the end of the tunnel? Read on to find out.
We entered 2010 with mortgage interest rates around 5.5%. Now they are around 4.75% and have been for some time. 15 year rates are as low as 4.25% and even lower rates are available for those with the nerve to take on adjustable rate mortgages. Not too many of those around these days. Still, low rates put housing within the reach of more people so that has to be good for the market.
In January 2010, 221 homes had sales agreed from San Ramon to Walnut Creek. Compare this with 264 in 2011. That is almost 20% increase, which is significant. Compare these figures with January 2009. There were only 164 sales agreed then.
Now let us look at Lamorinda for the same periods. In January 2009 there were just 20 sales agreed. This increased to 32 in 2010 and 42 in 2011. It would seem that Lamorinda is recovering even faster than the southern end of the San Ramon Valley.
Homes Are Selling In The Lower Priced Areas
On to the northern end of the valley. The lower priced areas of Pleasant Hill, Concord and Martinez were harder hit than many in the East Bay, so let's see how they are faring.
In January 2009, there were 199 sales agreed. This actually decreased in 2010 to only 163 sales but January 2011 saw a drastic improvement with 277 sales being agreed. An Incredible 70% improvement in just a year.
How Home Values Fared In The Past Two Years
There is obviously little doubt that the market is active in terms of sales but what about values? With these kinds of numbers , average sales values are quite meaningful, so let's take a look at overall averages of closed sales for the same periods.
Again, looking at San Ramon to Walnut Creek first, the average closed sale value was $677,000 in January 2009. This dropped to $654,700 in 2010 then a further drop to $625,855 in 2011.
In Lamorinda, the figures are $861,344 for 2009, $854,683 for 2010 and $889,777 in 2011. So not only is Lamorinda seeing the greatest increase in sales volume, prices are actually rising too.
Pleasant Hill, Concord and Martinez show a similar story to . January 2009 had an average sale price of $287,524 which compared with $284,174 in 2010 and $271,148 in 2011.
Which Direction Will Prices Go In 2011?
Based on the fact that Lamorinda is showing strong signs of recovery and given the facts that interest rates are currently very low and there are many serious buyers about, I think that any further decreases in value are most unlikely. Open houses are seeing good attendances and some homes are even getting multiple offers so the future for 2011 looks encouraging for home owners. Prices are unlikely to increase significantly but we can look forward to a very active market in the coming months.
Current inventory levels are low in all price ranges ao If you are thinking of selling, I would suggest getting your home on the market quickly while you have little competition. Buyers may need to have some patience but there are some good deals to be had, particularly with bank owned foreclosures and we can probably look forward to higher numbers of homes for sale once we get into March.
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