Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR,CHMS
Chief Executive Officer ~ Keller Williams Arizona Realty
Many local economists have been forecasting the gradual recovery of the Phoenix market to begin in the third quarter of 2011. Could they be right?
According to the MLS statistics, Phoenix is experiencing our typical first quarter sales cycle. February closings were up 9.4% over January, however the truly bright spot is that February 2011 closings were up 8.5% over February 2010.
New listings added to inventory in February declined by 14.2% which is a typical seasonal pattern, as well, and again, the truly bright spot is that total inventory declined by 5.2% leaving inventory at it's lowest point in the past twelve months. The overall months of supply of inventory has finally slipped below 6% to 5.68% months of supply, moving closer to a balanced market. As we know, when examining micro-markets in the Valley, the overall market months of supply is varying significantly from one community to another.
Several months ago, MLS has began tracking the "Pending Price Index," whereby they look at the sales price information for pending sales scheduled to close in the next 90 days. Presumably, properties taking more than 45 days to close would likely be short sales, and the forward indicator for those scheduled to close in 60-90 days is not positive, however, we can hope that additional properties, able to close in more traditional time frames will go into escrow during that period and counter balance the effect.
Foreclosures pending has dropped 21.9% from the market high established in November of 2009. We have been observing a gradual decline over the past year, but the forecast shows that an unhealthy number of foreclosures will likely be available for some time to come.
Listings pending sale are still strong at 13,012. Listings that are active with contingencies account for an additional 6,847.
Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
• There are 26,532 single family detached listings currently in MLS. That is a decrease of 586 listings from last week, and six consecutive weeks of decrease.
• There are 32,780 total listings currently active in MLS, which includes condos, townhomes, patio homes and lofts
For additional information, or to view properties for sale, visit www.PacellaGroup.com
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