Middlesex County NJ Market Commentary - March 2011
Active Inventory
The Active Inventory also called current supply or unsold homes as tracked in the Middlesex County Multiple Listing System (MLS).
The Active Inventory as we follow it (Active homes for sale not under contract and not under attorney reviews) is very high at 2800 homes for sale in Middlesex County NJ. This number is only for residential single family homes and does not include condos, townhouses, multi dwellings, adult community, etc...Also it may not include for sale by owners. It does not include either any type of Shadow Inventory. The inventory is almost 4% higher than last month. Typically January and February have a lower inventory due to the seasonal effect and holidays (i.e some home sellers take their homes off the market during this season and wait for the spring market to relist, etc...). The inventory year over year is 11.5% higher.
The shadow inventory according to the New York Times is about 100,000 already foreclosed homes but not yet on the market for the state of New Jersey .
Pending Sales
Number of homes under contract, not including homes under Attorney Review. This is a new statistic we are including in our monthly reports. Until now we always have been focused on Sold Homes data to calculate the average/median home prices, SP/AP, DOM and DOI. However Pending Sales because they are captured 1 to 2 month in average prior the Sold time stamp they do offer a more timely view of the market.
For the month of February we had 200 homes coming under contract. It represents a 24.2% increase versus January. We are not able to compare it YoY as we have not tracked this specific Middlesex County stat until recently.
Buyers per 100 Sellers
This represents the number of buyers per 100 sellers. It is calculated using the Active Inventory and the Pending Sales. This is also a new Real Estate Stat we are introducing in our monthly Middlesex County market report. As time goes we will be able to trend it and better compare it. For the reported period we had 7 buyers for every 100 home sellers in Middlesex County, NJ which is an increase over January (6 buyers per 100 sellers).
New Homes Listed
For Middlesex County NJ, the number of new homes listed in February has increased versus new homes listed in January 3.3% (603 new homes listed in Middlesex County). Year over year it has decreased 4.3%.
Number of Sold Homes
In February, the number of sold homes is very low with 180 sold homes and has increased 34.3% YoY. It is also down versus last month (182) which was already very low.
Median Sold Price and Average Sold price
The average (mean) sold price ($322,566) has decreased versus last month 5.5%. Year over year the average sold price has also decreased 5.6%.
The median sold price ($285,000) has also decreased 2.1% versus last month and increased 2.1% versus last year. The median price has reached a new low.
Sold Price / Asking Price (SP/AP) Ratio
SP/AP ratio is 93% and has decreased versus January and last year. This is one of the lowest SP/AP ratio. In average, sellers are negotiating and accepting offers at 93% of their last asking price. Please note that I mentioned "last asking price" and not "original asking price" which is very different.
Days on Market (DOM)
Another real estate statistic is Days on Market or DOM which increased to 126 days. Meaning that it takes over 4 months in average to go under contract. A word of caution with this indicator as it is NOT a cumulative DOM. Meaning the clock re-starts with any new listing contract for the same home. Thus this statistic does not indicate to average home sellers, the average time on the market. This is a good example of the better value of looking at those statistics, which is more in the trend analysis and local markets comparison than in a specific number at a specific given time.
Days of Inventory (DOI) or Absorption Rate
Days of Inventory (DOI) which is a derived number of the Active Inventory and Sold Homes has increased 5% versus last month which was very high and has decreased 17% versus last year. At 482 days, it means it would take about 16 months to sell all existing inventory with no additional inventory coming on the market. A market with over 6 months supply would usually qualify as a buyer's market. A market with less than 6 months of supply would usually qualify as a seller's market.
That's the end of our local market commentary based on Middlesex County NJ real estate statistics. As always, contact me if any questions.
Cathy Chaudemanche Team, Sunday 03/13/2011
P.S.
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