There is a lot of misconception on the current status of the Boise Idaho real estate market. Many people make the mistake of reading the national real estate data and assuming that the same applies to the Boise area.
National marketing companies have liked to use Boise as a test market for many different products for decades since we are more immune to national influences. For the same reason, we are trending much different from many parts of the national housing market. We still have plenty of distressed properties but our inventory is shrinking rapidly and I predict we will have pockets of price APPRECIATION in 2011.
If you look at today as a sample point, there were 17 new listings entered in Ada County. Nearly half were distressed properties (4 potential short sales and four new bank owned listings). How in the world can I predict price appreciation based on those "facts" you ask? Well, for a while we were averaging 60% distressed sale listings, not less than half. 12 of our listings went pending today, another 2 listing expired, 2 listings were cancelled/withdrawn, and another 13 properties were reported as sold today. Collectively, that means that even though we appeared to add 17 new homes into the inventory mix, since we simultaneously took 29 homes off the market today, we ended up taking a 12 more homes off the market than we had yesterday!
Since one day doesn't make a trend or accurately reflect a paradigm shift, lets look at year to date data.
Currently in Ada County (Boise, Meridian, Kuna and Star), there are 3,061 Residential listings in the Intermountain MLS. Most people will take that at face value and say that is too many homes and predict further price reductions (especially since there were only 6,799 homes sold in Ada County in 2011). That was only 566.5 homes a month in 2010 including the tax credits offered to buy in the first half of 2010!
When you compare the number of homes closed in Ada County in the first quarter, you would find we have only closed 1,438 homes or 479 a month. It appears again at first glance that we are slowing down compared to last year's rate of 566.5, but again that is not the right conclusion even though that is what the media keeps harping on!
As Paul Harvey would have said, "And now, the rest of the story!" Year to date sales are actually up considerably in 2011 even without the tax incentives offered in 2010. By this time last year we had only sold 1,363 homes so this year we are already 75 home sales ahead of last years pace.
If you look at the current inventory of homes in Ada County offered for sale, 3,061 sounds like a lot until you take off the 461 that already have contingent offers on them. That brings the number down to only 2,601. Then, you should really take off all the "To Be Built" listings since those homes aren't even built yet. That reduces the number by an additional 217. That really leaves only 2,384. If we are selling 479 a month even before spring and summer months frenzy hits, that would take less than five months to absorb the entire inventory! If we use the number of homes we closed in March of 2011 (598) as the absorption rate, we have less than a four month inventory.
Here is a quick summary of the non contingent single family homes listed (not condo's, townhouses, mobile homes, etc.), age is under construction but less than 20 years old, priced under $150,000 in Ada County; the number selling per month and the current month's inventory
3 Bedroom, 2 Bath 2 Car Garage = 213 Active = 183 Sold in 1st Qtr 2011 = Current month's supply 3.5
3 Bedroom, 2 Bath 3 Car Garage = 14 Active = 40 Sold in 1st Qtr 2011 = Current month's supply 1
4 Bedroom, 2+ Bath 2 Car Garage = 16 Active = 24 Sold in 1st Qtr 2011 = Current month's supply 2
4 Bedroom, 2+ Bath 3+ Car Garage = 7 Active = 51 Sold in 1st Qtr 2011 = Current month's supply 0.41
5+ Bedroom 2+ bath 2+ Garage = 0 Active = 7 Sold in 1st Qtr 2011 = Current month's supply 0
Based on these numbers which are taken straight from MLS statistics, you can see that we are well into a "Seller's Market". If you are a buyer, I would suggest buying now before the sellers realize it in this price range!
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