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Monday Mortgage Update

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Mortgage and Lending with Caliber Home Loans 288509


Market Comment - Week of May 9th, 2011

Mortgage bond prices rose last week pushing mortgage interest rates lower. We were positive throughout most of the week as stocks struggled and oil prices fell. The ADP employment figure was lower than expected and weekly jobless claims were higher than expected which generally helped mortgage bonds. Unfortunately the payrolls component of the employment report Friday morning surprised to the upside and some of the earlier improvements were erased. Mortgage bonds ended the week better by about 1/4 of a discount point.

The inflation data will take center stage this week. Any surprises to the upside on the consumer or producer sides will likely put upward pressure on rates. Foreign demand for the auctions this week will also be important.


Economic Factors

Economic Indicator

Release Date Time

Consensus Estimate

Analysis

3-year Treasury Note Auction

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

None

Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Trade Data

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

$45.5b deficit

Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.

10-year Treasury Note Auction

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

None

Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Weekly Jobless Claims

Thursday, May 12, 2011

455k

Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.

Producer Price Index

Thursday, May 12, 2011

Up 0.6%, Core up 0.4%

Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.

Retail Sales

Thursday, May 12, 2011

Up 0.3%

Important. A measure of consumer demand. A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage rates.

30-year Treasury Bond Auction

Thursday, May 12, 2011

None

Important. Bonds will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Consumer Price Index

Friday, May 13, 2011

Up 0.6%, Core up 0.2%

Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.

 

Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index is widely accepted as the most important measure of inflation. The CPI is a measure of prices at the consumer level for a fixed basket of goods and services. The National Statistics Office and the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics of the Department of Agriculture collect price data for the computation of the CPI. Since it is an index number, it compares the level of prices to a base period. By comparing the level of the index at two different points in time, analysts can determine how much prices have risen in that period. Unlike other measures of inflation, which only factor domestically produced goods; the CPI takes into account imported goods as well. This is important due to the ever-increasing reliance of the US economy upon imported goods. Analysts primarily focus on the core rate of the CPI which factors out the more volatile food and energy prices. Record debt levels continue to weigh heavily upon the financial markets. The Fed has tried to pump up the economy but in doing so has stoked inflation fears.


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6025 S. Quebec Street #110
Centennial, CO 80111 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jason Keith
Senior Loan Officer

Office: 720-489-0712
e-Fax: 866-445-5694
Cell: 303-263-6135 

jkeith@wrstarkey.com
www.LoansFromJason.com 
NMLSR# 288509
LMB100018303

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Jason M. Keith
Senior Loan Officer
LMB100018303
NMLSR # 288509
Cell: 303-263-6135
jkeith@starkeymtg.com

Starkey Mortgage

6025 S. Quebec Street

Suite 110

Centennial, CO 80111

To check the license status of your mortgage loan originator, visit http://www.dora.state.co.us/real-estate/index.htm.