According to the Directors of First Multiple Listing Service, the following is the April 2011 update for the Atlanta real estate market:
March 2011 had 11 fewer closings for all single family versus March 2010. However, after lags are included, March 2011 will be the 3rd consecutive year-to-year increase in closings for all single family out of the last 4 periods. Though the increase is minimal (148 more closings or 1.4% higher) for the 1st quarter 2011 versus 1st quarter 2010 at least we are positive.
Even though we have had a few positive monthly year-to-year increases we are far from where we used to be. The 4,712 closings for all single family in March is still 35% below March’s all time high in 2006.
There were 748 closings for single family attached in March 2011. This was exactly the number that we recorded for March 2010, but after lags are reported there will be a minimal increase. This is also the most closings for a monthly reporting period since June 2010.
There were 3,964 closings for single family detached in March 2011. This was a decrease of 0.3% or 11 closings from March 2010, so after lags are included there will be a minimal year-to-year increase.
The main concern remains closed prices. January 2011 prices dropped to new recession lows and February and now March remain down and at 1997-1998 levels.
The average closed price for all single family in March 2011 was $167,617. This is the 3rd consecutive monthly average closed price below $170M. The last time the average closed monthly average price was below $170, 000 before 2011 was January 1998 and now we have had three straight months. We are clearly making new ‘bottoms’ in our housing downturn.
The March 2011 average price for all single family was 11.1% below March 2010 and the 7th consecutive year-to-year monthly decline.
The average closed price for single family detached in March 2011 was $176,129. This is 10% below March 2010 and $108,000 below the all time June 2007 high.
The average price for single family detached in 2011 is $175,446. The last time an annual average was below this amount was 1997’s $171,872.
The average closed price for single family attached in March 2011 was $122,505. This is 18.9% below March 2010 and $80,000 or 40% below the November 2007 all-time high.
Inventory for all single family at the end of March remained flat from the end of February. If this continues we will be back to 2004’s inventory level sometime during the next few months.
The 2010 housing stimulus ended April 2010 and under-contracts had large year-to-year gains April 2009 to April 2010. So after 5 consecutive reporting periods (November-March) of year-to-year gains in all single family units going under contract this trend could end this month. \
The concern is long term, as I believe if oil remains over $100/barrel for any length of time a double dip recession would happen. It is the economy that is holding back housing and we need the economy, jobs, etc to improve. When this happens foreclosures will slow, demand will pick up, and prices will stabilize and improve.
Sincerely,
Michael Shirley
Associate Broker- Keller Williams Realty Atlanta Pratners
Cell: 404-456-1993
Direct: 678-407-6333
www.MichaelShirleyTeam.com
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