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If you are considering locking in an interest rate for a New York mortgage or a Florida mortgage, read this post.
Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, extending Friday’s late selling. The stock markets are showing minor losses with the Dow down 10 points and the Nasdaq down 8 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point over Friday’s morning pricing.
There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. Therefore, look for the stock markets to have the biggest influence on today's mortgage rates also. If the major indexes move well into positive ground, we could see bond prices fall further and mortgage rates revise higher later today.
The rest of the week brings us the release of four pieces of relevant economic news in addition to the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. None of the economic reports are considered to be highly important to the markets or mortgage rates, but they do carry enough significance to influence mortgage rates if they show a wide variance from forecasts.
The week’s first data is April's Housing Starts early tomorrow morning. This data measures housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking newly issued permits and actual starts of new home construction. It is expected to show an increase in new starts from March's readings. Since this report is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market, it likely will have little impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.
April's Industrial Production will also be posted tomorrow morning. It measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. The 9:15 AM ET release is expected to show a 0.5% increase in production, indicating that manufacturing activity is growing. A smaller than expected increase in output would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it would indicate that the manufacturing sector is not as strong as thought. This report is equally important to the markets as the earlier housing report, so they both will likely need to show unexpected strength or weakness for them to cause a sizable movement in mortgage rates.
Overall, it looks like we may see a fairly calm week in mortgage rates unless something unexpected happens or the stock markets make a big move upward or downward. I can’t really label one particular day as the most important one. If the stock markets remain fairly calm, I would guess the middle part of the week will probably be the most active for mortgage pricing. However, sizable gains or losses in the major stock indexes could influence bonds and mortgage rates more than this week's economic data can.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Empire Home Mortgage inc. is a registered Mortgage Broker with the NYS and Florida Banking Depts and our loans are arranged through third party providers.
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