Maricopa County Arizona Market Watch
Welcome to the second edition of The Good, the Uncertain, and the Disappointing (the replacement to The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly).
The Good: Inventory is continuing to decline, and although on average, pricing is 7% below where it was at this time last year, it is up compared to the first quarter of this year, and compared to the month of April 2011. Additionally, equity sales show a slight gain in market share since last month, while foreclosures show a slight loss in market share. According to the data, this trend is expected to continue and we are now at an average price level above the first bottom of April 2009 and the second dip of February 2011.
The Uncertain: Because of the imbalance in the number of pending short sales, versus equity and foreclosure sales, predicting quarterly gains or losses in price per square foot has become somewhat akin to stabbing in the dark. Typically, one could review the data for pending sales and predict the trend. Unfortunately, since such a large percentage of the pending sales are short sales awaiting lender approval, which could take several months, the predictions are very unclear. Those short sale transactions could become disapproved by the lender and not close, or the lender could counter offer with a higher purchase price invalidating the predicted price per square foot data.
The Disappointing: Short sales recorded a slight gain in market share. Although their average price per square foot is not as low as foreclosures, and the short sale average price per square foot is increasing, they are still eroding pricing, when compared to equity sales. Due to the number of short sales, the Cromford Report is anticipating that pricing will fall flat over the next month.
Listings Pending Sale are still strong with a total of 14,318. That is a decrease of 46 pending listings compared to last week. Listings that are active with contingencies account for an additional 7940 properties.
Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market:
- There are 19,401 single family detached listings, currently active in MLS. That is a decrease of 571 listings from last week, and the seventeenth consecutive week of decrease. Typically sixteen weeks of a particular pattern is officially a trend.
- There are 24,286 total listings currently active in MLS, which includes condos, patio homes, townhomes, and lofts.