Market Snapshot May 31st

Not a good start this morning in the bond and mortgage markets. This is employment week when most attention is directed to working the estimates all week; current thoughts are for jobs to increase 185K with non-farm private jobs +220K and unemployment unchanged at 9.0%. The forecasts likely to be moving all week; on tomorrow we get a look at what ADP estimates, presently it is expected to show an increase of 170K private jobs. 

The 10 yr note yield is finding momentary resistance at its 200 day moving average. Over the weekend news from Europe that a deal may be in the offing to help Greece avoid defaults has also pressured the bond and mortgage markets as the dollar is declining against the euro, that in turn is putting a bid in US equities. Some of the safety buying from potential debt problems in Europe are being lifted adding additional pressure in the US rate markets. At 9:30 the DJIA opened +106, the 10- yr -6/32 at 3.10% and mortgage prices -7/32 (.22 bp).  

German retail sales rose in April as unemployment fell below 3 million for the first time in almost 19 years, fueling bets that the European Central Bank will signal next week that it may raise interest rates for a second time this year. A separate European Union report showed euro-region inflation slowed in May to 2.7% from April's 2.8%, the fastest pace since October 2008. Better economic reads from Germany and lower inflation added to what is expected on the US jobs report on Friday are a drag on US rate markets.

The Case/Shiller home prices fell 4.2% yr/yr; in April prices fell 0.6% in the 10 city and -0.8% in the 20 city data. Prices continue to fall and the outlook doesn't look any better; housing according to Shiller are now in a confirmed double dip with prices expected to continue to fall particularly in the areas hardest hit; Phoenix, Florida, Nevada and California. Until the inventory is stabilized (banks continuing to unload foreclosures into markets) the deli one in prices is expected to continue.

At 9:45 the May Chicago purchasing mgrs data was weaker than expected and follows the various Fed regional reports over the past couple of weeks. The overall index was expected at 62.5 frm 67.6, as reported it fell to 56.6; new orders index 53.5 frm 66.3, prices pd at 78.6 frm 81.8 and employment fell to 60.8 frm 63.7. Any index over 50 is considered expansion, under 50 contraction. Only a slight reaction to the data improving rate prices by 3/32 frm their low.

At 10:00 My consumer confidence from the Conference Board was expected at 66.3 frm 66.0 in April; as reported it fell to 60.8 the lowest level since last November. Present conditions 39.3 frm 40.2, expectations at 75.2 frm 83.2 and inflation expectations at 6.6 frm 6.3. Another weak report.  

This Week's Economic Calendar:

        Wednesday;

             7:00 am MBA mortgage apps

             8:15 am ADP jobs estimate for May (+170K non-farm private jobs)

             10:00 am ISM May manufacturing index (57.6 frm 60.4)

                           Apr construction spending (-0.5%)

            3:00 pm May auto and truck sales (N/A)

       Thursday;

            8:30 am weekly jobless claims (-11K to 413K; con't claims 3.688 mil frm 3.690 mil)

                         Q1 productivity revision (+1.6% unch frm previous release)

                         Q1 unit labor costs (+0.9%)

           10:00 am Apr factory orders (-1.0%)

       Friday;

           8:30 am May employment data (non-farm jobs +185K, non-farm private jobs +220K, unemployment +9.0%)

           10:00 am May ISM services sector index (53.3 frm 52.8)

The data this morning was all weaker than expected; the rate markets have improved by 10:10 from levels where prices were set this morning.