The May monthly Jobs report comes out on Friday, and the ADP jobs report that came out this morning is a sobering reminder of how fragile our economy is. EXTREMELY fragile. 
With an expected 177,000 private jobs created in May, the number that came in was 38,000 private jobs created. WAY disappointing. This will definitely have a positive effect on mortgage rates and a negative reaction on Wall Street.
So far this morning, mortgage backed securities (what mortgage rates are derived from) are up about 53 basis points and the last I saw, the DOW was down about 140 points. This report today follows a very weak case-schiller home value report from yesterday. It was down 3.6%, putting that report worse than the lowest level during the great recession back in 2009.
Today also saw the ISM down substantially. Tomorrow we will see last weeks jobless claims, and on Friday we will see a different report on the May jobs. The ADP is private employment, the report on Friday has the private payroll numbers as well as the governmental numbers.
With states have extreme fiscal problems, more nd more governmental jobs are being shed.
If the private sector is creating enough jobs to keep up with even a minuscule GDP, we might be headed in the wrong direction. There is now talk of Double dip! Fasten your seatbelts, it could get real bumpy in the next couple of days.
This is why I have to look at the positives. If I get wrapped up in the sour news and become a pessimist, I will NOT be the source of referral. I have to digest what I am seeing, translate it to my clients and referral partners, and continue to educate. That way there is no unseen surprisess. On any level.
Do I know what is going to happen......NO. But I can continue to learn and see what the trends are, and pass that on. This is the time to be "THE" expert in my profession.
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