Forecasters: Above-Average Hurricane Season Expected
April 6, 2011
By WeatherBug Sr. Meteorologist, James West
Another active hurricane season is on tap for Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico this summer and fall, so says a renowned hurricane forecast team today. The chances of a hurricane hitting the U.S. are significant.
The Colorado State University tropical forecast team first hurricane prediction of the year, issued April 6, calls for 16 tropical storms to form in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin, nine of them becoming hurricanes and five growing into major hurricanes will winds in excess of 111 mph. The 50-year average is 9.6 storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes.
The Atlantic Hurricane Basin consists of the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 every year. The historical height of the Atlantic hurricane season runs from mid-August to early October. However, tropical systems can form at any time during the season.
Driving the above-average forecast is "a favorable multi-decadal period for enhanced Atlantic Basin hurricane activity, which is expected to continue for the next 10-15 years or so," said Dr. William Gray of the team. Other expected contributors include above-normal warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and no expected El Nino or La Nino.
The Colorado State team is predicting that there will be a 72 percent chance of the U.S. coastline being hit by a major 111 mph-plus wind hurricane. There is a 61 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean.
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