Market update at glance july 2011

Employment is the key to housing and we, in Yellowstone County, are moving against the national tide of flat employment. Several things of note to highlight. #1 the percentage we are behind 2010 in closed transaction has been narrowing , a positive, #2 inventory is slightly below 2010 a positive, #3 employment in the Billings MSA is 2300 jobs higher than June of 2010, #4 although not great news for my friends in the home building business, single family permits year to date are off 30%, this give the market in resale’s a positive by reducing supply to increase absorption. So what does all mean for the balance of 2011, first it really starts to supply a floor to the housing market in Yellowstone county. Second in 2012 we should start to see the sales number of both of existing and new construction move up. The best indicator is the employment situation and the Billings MSA, it is just below peak employment by a mere .0012% as compared to the national jobs market at 5.1% below peak employment. Jobs are critical since it is impossible to qualify for a loan without a job. (DUHHHHH) As a side note, my standard disclaimer, never discount what stupidity may come from Washington DC and mess things up. There are three  graphs below #1 year to date and year over year July existing home sales comparisons, #2 year to date and year over year July single family permits issued comparisons #3 employment in the Billings MSA monthly Since January 2007