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What really caused the housing bubble to pop? A simple explanation to a complicated problem.

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Cornerstone Business Group Inc 0225086119

There is still a great deal of anxiety when people approach the housing market.  One major reason we're having a hard time getting past this period in US housing is because people don't understand why the housing bubble burst to begin with, and that alone has them worried about it happening again.  The explanation is easier than you may realize.

Even in a down economy, people need to have a place to live.  So, if someone is thinking about a place to invest money, they should consider real estate.  The most recent real estate bubble had its birth in the political arena in Washington, D.C., and it popped when the realities of failed political policy slammed head on into actual economic reality. 

 

When politicians began putting pressure on lenders to loan money to individuals (late 90s - to early 2000s) who were never qualified (remember 'No doc' loans) they created a large jump in loan originations which ultimately resulted in a avalanche of mortgage failures.  The bundling of bad loans ultimately weakened numerous large Wall Street firms who received tax bail out money, but that's a topic for another blog.

 

The entrance of unqualified buyers into the market caused a shortage of available properties which ran prices up.  Prices well exceeded their true market value, some times by 100%.  Out of fear, people scrambled to buy over-inflated houses, stretching their budgets to the limit and demanding that many borrowers have two income earners to maintain a mortgage.

 

When unqualified buyers started to default, the entire house of cards started collapsing; washing away millions of homeowners.  Over-inflated prices were demanding 40-60% of a households income.  If one wage earner lost his/her job the odds of default were multiplied.  As the number of defaulting borrowers grew, the value of homes in practically every neighborhood began to decline.   Suddenly, families who did everything right,  found themselves upside down on their mortgage.

 

The loss of a job, a reduction in working hours, a company shutting its doors, an increase in gas and grocery prices and a dozen other things finally brought a second tier of borrowers down.  The housing bubble collapsed like a building of dominoes.  First were the unqualified buyers, followed by the homeowners who lost income, then investors who scooped up properties only to rent them to tenants who also lost their jobs and finally the perpetually unemployed whose life savings finally ran out.

 

What will it take to fix the housing problem?  A reality check.  Whenever politicians get involved in business the economy suffers.  Remember the incandescent light bulb.  How many jobs were lost over that legislation?  GE, Sylvania and others took their lamp production to China and Mexico because US companies don't make CFLs.  Political correctness drove good US companies out of this country and delivered a light producing product full of mercury to our homes and landfills.  Hence, my frustration with government tinkering with business.

 

When the powers that be in Washington, D.C. quit tinkering with the US housing market, housing will have the opportunity to rebound.  That's why it's so important that every American vote, and every American needs to vote for men and women who have business sense.  That doesn't include college professors who have never held a job outside of an ivory tower.  Theory and reality can be far apart.  We need true leaders who know what they're doing.  The US economy is not something you can learn on the job.  You either know how it works and work with it, or it eats you alive and people suffer.

Also, anyone who is making policy that affects an entire industry should have some idea of what that industry does.  Make your voices heard my friends, so our housing economy can recover, and when it does the rest of the economy will recover.

 

 

 

Comments(12)

Ron T. Weems Jr.
Weems Property Group | KW North Sound - Bothell, WA
Managing the details one home at a time.

Mike,

I like your explanation on everything. I do agree with a lot of it. Let me just say, behind close doors deals were made that put us where we are today.

Aug 17, 2011 11:58 AM
Mike Cooper, Broker VA,WV
Cornerstone Business Group Inc - Winchester, VA
Your Neighborhood Real Estate Sales Pro

Sadly, Ron, that's always the case.  Thanks for dropping by.

Aug 17, 2011 12:00 PM
Jerry Murphy, CRS, SRES
Long Realty West Valley - Anthem, AZ
Anthem, Phoenix, and Scottsdale AZ Real Estate

So let me get this straight.  The banks, who were making all of these terrible loans, then selling them off as AAA rated investment products had NOTHING to do with this? It was ALL the governments fault?  The banks could not have just said to the government, "no, we will not make such risky loans no matter the profit we will reap from such loans on the front end."?  And the loan officers from those financial institutions that either pressured people into taking out exoctic loan products or out and out lied to them about the loans they were getting.  They weren't at fault either? It's all the government's fault.  So if I were a legislator and I made a law that said Mike Cooper can go and steal as much money as he wants from people you would do it? Under the premise that it was legal, but not ethical? Hmmmm, quite a simplistic way of looking at a very complex issue if you ask me.

Aug 17, 2011 12:06 PM
Paula Hathaway, REALTOR, LBA
Douglas Elliman Real Estate - Southampton, NY
...A Local Expert in all The Hamptons

Mike: terrific explanation of exactly what happened--and the truth in your words:"Suddenly, families who did everythng right, found themselves upside-down on their mortgage"...This put people in jeopardy more than any other single thing; when I watched as families were tossed out of there homes, even here in the Hamptons, you better believe things were different!! Great post and so full of the right information of just what really happened!

Aug 17, 2011 12:16 PM
Allan Sanchez
Roseville CA & Rocklin CA Short Sale Agent - Roseville, CA
Rocklin & Roseville, Short Sale Agent

It may be simplistic but we're talking about recovery here.  I agree we need politicians with REAL business experience, not career politicians worried about reelection.  There hasn't been any good economy news in CA.  I for one don't see a light at the end of the tunnel until we get people back to work and we need leaders to put those plans in place.

Thanks for a lot to think about!

Aug 17, 2011 12:19 PM
Mike Cooper, Broker VA,WV
Cornerstone Business Group Inc - Winchester, VA
Your Neighborhood Real Estate Sales Pro

Jerry, there was a lot more arm twisting going on than we will ever know about.  Sure, some bankers and mortgage brokers got greedy when they saw the access to easy money, but access to easy money started in DC.  Greedy banks simply complied with the pressure to lend to unqualified borrows and made a boat load of money in the process.    Thanks for commenting.

Thanks for dropping by, Paula.

Allan, I wish there was better news for CA, but it's the world's 8th largest economy.  If the leaders don't lead with fiscal responsibility it will be long way back.  Good luck. 

Aug 17, 2011 12:28 PM
Joe Kenny
Realty Executive Midwest - Darien, IL
Better Than Your Average Joe

Mike to Jerry's point " Why didn't the banks tell the government "no, we will not make such risky loans no matter the profit we will reap from such loans on the front end."? This might also be simplistic but don't forget the banks wanted to get into the real estate market and were lobbying the government to allow it. If they said no they could kiss that good bye-  They ultimately did kiss it good bye but it seems to me their hands were tied.  Thanks for this great post.

Aug 17, 2011 03:48 PM
Richard Weisser
Richard Weisser Realty - Newnan, GA
Richard Weisser Retired Real Estate Professional

Mike...

There were lot of factors that created the problem, but now we need some real solutions. And the current crowd in charge just doesn't seem to get it!

Aug 17, 2011 04:22 PM
Conrad Allen
Re/Max Professional Associates - Webster, MA
Webster, Ma, Realtor

Amen Mike.  No doc loans and no housing/debt ratios exacerbated the issues.  People keep referring to "banks" in the traditional sense.  A lot of banks are the stock brokerage companies that took traditional mortgages and broke them into a million pieces and sold then pension plans, etc.  They are the true culprits along with Barney Frank and congress.

Aug 17, 2011 11:44 PM
Mike Cooper, Broker VA,WV
Cornerstone Business Group Inc - Winchester, VA
Your Neighborhood Real Estate Sales Pro

It sounds like such a simple solution for the banks to say no, but it's a lot like GM saying no when the government wanted to take it over.  What are the odds they would have said no?  Not likely.  Of course, if the government was pressuring a bank to lend to unqualified borrows and the government is promising they will cover them, why wouldn't they.  Not that the banks didn't play their role, but like a lot of the major debacles in our country, it started at the seats of power.  Today, the banks are saying no and people are vilifying them, including the government.  They can't win.

Aug 18, 2011 12:41 AM
Alan Gross
PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company, Equal Housing Lender - Bethesda, MD
Loan Consultant

One friends on capital hill will never admit it but they did start the problems in the 90's with pressure to make more loans to "marginal" buyers. I wouldn't blame the problems on N0-Doc loans. They've been around successfully for a long time a do have a place in lending. The problem surfaced when the required equity in the property was lowered and the credit standards were lowered. I have some well qualified clients that can't get loans now because the don't fit in today's lending box. One example is a client with a high credit score and and a 30% loan-to-value with over $4,000.0000 in the bank but just left a salaried job to strike out on his own. No history of income but a great loan.

Aug 18, 2011 01:36 AM
Mike Cooper, Broker VA,WV
Cornerstone Business Group Inc - Winchester, VA
Your Neighborhood Real Estate Sales Pro

Thanks for posting, Alan.  Great comments.

Aug 18, 2011 01:43 AM