Which of these two plans will fix the problem?

By
Industry Observer

There are some issues in our economy that need to be addressed.  One, perhaps not the most urgent, but certainly one reason for the sluggishness is lack of investment money in the stock and bond markets.  Let's look at a couple potential government programs and evaluate their possible effectiveness.

First, there are many poor people in America who just can't afford to invest in the stock market, or have lost their life savings through investing in the wrong place at the wrong time.  If each of them put $100.000 into publicly traded equities, the market would soar.  The government could assist these folks by a combination of gifts and loans so they could get in the game.  This would help many people who are unemployed and underemployed with no other way to invest.

Second, there are many Americans who have lots of cash that is not earning them hardly any appreciation.  It may even be losing a little value through our low but present inflation.  They hesitate to invest for various reasons ranging from fear of loss to uncertainty about where the government will take individuals and businesses. The government could offer some incentive, like indicating that long term capital gains and qualified dividends will remain taxed at a lower rate for, say the next ten years.  Maybe even short term gains could be taxed at a lower rate than ordinary income.  Maybe offer a deduction for contributions to Roth IRA's and Roth 401k's for a year or two, and a deduction as well as the tax deferral for traditional 401K and IRA accounts for a couple years.

These are obviously not perfectly crafted proposals, but they illustrate two distinct possible efforts at increasing the total amount of investments in our economy.  I think most would agree that the second proposal would have more effect on the overall strength of the equity market.  The wisdom of such a plan is debatable, but the results is relatively predictable.

I think there's some similarity between my mythical proposals and the way the housing depression is being addressed.  We are still focused on doing all possible to help people who can't afford to own a home, own a home.  We are doing almost nothing to help people with well-performing loans that are underwater.  There is a relatively large pool of potential home buyers who could afford a higher monthly payment, who have always made their monthly mortgage payments on time, and who desperately want to move up to a home more suitable to their families' needs.  We're ignoring the key to an improved housing market, while coming up with program after program to help ultimate renters delay the return to a more normal life with less stress on their emotions and their finances.

We need good incentives to help people with performing loans to either accelerate their equity buildup, and/or to transfer their debt from one home to another. 

Posted by

 Mike Carlier  Lakeville, MN

 

612-916-3033

 

Comments (4)

Yvonne Burdette-Van Camp
To Buy and Sell Real Estate, see me at Southwest Missouri Realty - Springfield, MO
"Home"work, I have the Answers!

Interesting.   When dealing with short sales I am so disappointed when I see bank statements full of personal non-essentials items like $40 nail salon, and numerous resturants and bar charges when they cannot pay the morgage.     I can't help but think, where are your priorities and then it is time to share some perspective.   When you are simply under water, it is not time to start spending!   

Aug 25, 2011 02:53 AM
Mike Carlier
Lakeville, MN
More opinions than you want to hear about.

Yvonne, thanks for commenting.  Not everyone who is underwater on their home loan is incapabable of making payments and sustaining a fairly high level of discretionary spending.  The point I was trying to make is that the industry would be more likely to improve if there were some economic incentives for people with a long history of performing loans and the means to make higher payments to move up to a better home. 

There are thousands of people who have lived in a home they have outgrown who have, for years, made every payment on time and who could afford to make a payment substantially larger if they had a reason to do it.  They are still underwater, even though they did not opt for any exotic financing that put them where they are. They are the move up buyers who are missing from the current market.

Aug 25, 2011 03:06 AM
Pacita Dimacali
Alain Pinel - Oakland, CA
Alameda/Contra Costa Counties CA

I've seen so many financials from short sales homesellers. Some of them get it. Some of them don't need it. Some of them just want to get away with it. And some truly need it.

But for those folks who are applying for loan modification so that they can keep their homes and have their loans within their financial reach and means...why not grant them the loan modification so that they can keep their home?

I remember when I applied for loan mod two years ago -- they turned me down. And the only solution they offered was to do a short sale. I haven't even missed the first payment! I was merely looking for some relief.

I know of many other folks in the same boat. These are responsible people. But banks are not extending any help to them at all. Do banks prefer to short sale or foreclose? Wouldn't they lose more money doing that than to approve loan mods?

>SIGH<

Aug 25, 2011 07:34 PM
Mike Carlier
Lakeville, MN
More opinions than you want to hear about.

Pacita, there are loan modifications and short sale attempts that are sometimes shams and sometimes necessary and beneficial to the homeowner and the lender.  Perhaps lenders would do well to make more objective decisions based on their potential losses.

Short sales, loan mods, government help to financially distressed owners all are helpful to individuals who are the recipients.  They do almost nothing to improve the fact that we are still in a housing depression.  My opinion is that the solution lies within the people who can afford to buy a home with the exception of their underwaterness.  The key to a healthier housing industry is activity, and the best activity is owner occupied homes being bought and sold by owner occupants. 

There are thousands, maybe millions of well-performing loans with negative equity.  Many of those homeowners are capable of a substantially higher payment, and they would buy if they could transfer their debt from one home to another.  More activity and buying interest will stabilize prices and prevent the need for some short sales and foreclosures.  

Aug 26, 2011 03:24 AM

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