Do Numbers lie ? The local and national news media continue to be doom and gloom about "The Real Estate Market". But which market are they referring too ? In terms of sales through September 2007, there is little in the Birmingham market (Jefferson & Shelby Counties) to panic about. In fact, I was curious about the numbers for the recent past and pulled the Birmingham Area MLS sales data from 2004-2007 just to get an idea.
Jefferson County | Total Sales | Average Price | Av. Days On Market | Absorption Rate (Mos) |
Jan - Sept 2004 | 7,988 | $168,235 | 88.9 | 4.64 |
Jan - Sept 2005 | 8,114 | $181,948 | 89.9 | 4.48 |
Jan - Sept 2006 | 8,236 | $192,296 | 92.8 | 5.56 |
Jan - Sept 2007 | 8,169 | $193,411 | 104.6 | 7.28 |
Shelby County | Total Sales | Average Price | Av. Days On Market | Absorption Rate (Mos) |
Jan - Sept 2004 | 3,779 | $216,097 | 90.9 | 4.02 |
Jan - Sept 2005 | 4,253 | $231,927 | 88.1 | 3.58 |
Jan - Sept 2006 | 3,952 | $237,628 | 100.6 | 4.75 |
Jan - Sept 2007 | 3,577 | $239,495 | 112.2 | 6.25 |
Hmm...what am I missing here ? These numbers look OK to me. Is the media talking about inventory levels ? Granted, inventory levels are up about 50% from last year. But doesn't that mean that there are a lot of people looking to move ? When pricing hits that magical equilibrium point, the market should explode. The YTD data shows that the average sales price versus list price is running around 97.54%. This tells me that properly priced homes are selling pretty well. Those that are overpriced to market, not so well. If the R/E community started preparing accurate CMA's and educating sellers about market forces, I don't think we would be talking about how bad the market is today.
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