Dead Cat Bounce?

By
Managing Real Estate Broker with San Diego Previews Real Estate CA BRE# 01101958

 In this post, I'm going to step out on a limb...and over a canyon. Perhaps it is a "dead cat bounce" as stock market reporters used to say in 2000-2001 about declining and spiking stocks. Maybe it is something else, but something is astir in our real estate market. 

Perhaps San Diego crashed first, and perhaps we really do perch on the bloody edge of the economic envelope. But the numbers and recent buyer calls cannot be ignored. In September, 2006 there were 271 listings in North County's zip 92009. Today that number has dropped to 192. There are 69 listings that are in pending status.

We are receiving triple the number of calls and showing appointments that we did just a few weeks ago.  Sales are popping all over the place.

What's different from a year ago?

Prices and buyer confidence.

San Diego home sellers have adjusted their expectations and are showing new respect to buyers. Buyers, in turn, are feeling more confident that the market has perhaps bottomed. Interest rates are dropping and creating renewed hope in the market.

Real estate prices in North County San Diego have rolled back to more reasonable levels, and buyers are responding. Once again, this proves that it is neither the agent nor the seller who determines the selling price of a home; instead, it is THE MARKET.

 

 

http://www.sandiegopreviews.com 

 

 

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Ambassador
1,514,247
Renée Donohue~Home Photography
Savvy Home Pix - Allegan, MI
Western Michigan Real Estate Photographer
I am getting that feeling here also.  I do think we will see a percentage or two drop in sale prices for December and then January and then ours will come back :)
Dec 07, 2006 03:21 PM #1
Rainmaker
197,836
Roberta Murphy
San Diego Previews Real Estate - Carlsbad, CA
Carlsbad Real Estate and Homes

Renee: Our San Diego prices have been dropping for months. Just recently, buyers have been stepping up to the plate--in numbers.

ALWAYS TRUST THE MARKET! 

Dec 07, 2006 03:29 PM #2
Rainer
48,039
Jolynne Photography, Creative Wedding Photography, Family Portraits, Bar Mitzvahs
Jolynne Photography - Hemet, CA
Bat Mitzvahs, Senior Pictures, Event Photography

I'm just north or North County San Diego...a little town called Hemet.

It's about five minutes from Palm Springs if you ignore the mountain that separates them!

Same thing here.  Many Realtors are talking doom and gloom.  I'm a lender and December is going to be my best month of the year.

Buyers are buying, sellers are selling, nothing else matters.

Dec 07, 2006 03:41 PM #3
Rainmaker
315,122
Brian Brady
San Diego VA Home Loans/858-777-9751 - San Diego, CA
858-777-9751

Activity is really up, true.

I think we're seeing buyers dipping in the collective toe.  I think 2007 will be more of the same in 2006 and am hopeful it is more drastic this time so the rest of the buyer's will recognize the value. 

Dec 07, 2006 03:49 PM #4
Anonymous
Lenn Harley

Our "market" has a way to go.  The price escalation was just too fast, to far.  Buyers are staying home and hardly even looking.  A $Million will buy a 29 year old 4/2 home in Fairfax, that the owners paid $650K for 2 years ago, buyers are just sitting in their rental or existing home. 

The "market" says prices have to come down significantly.  Sellers are sitting on their overpriced homes and playing "tug of war" with buyers. 

Buyers are going to win.

 

Dec 07, 2006 11:31 PM #6
Rainmaker
197,836
Roberta Murphy
San Diego Previews Real Estate - Carlsbad, CA
Carlsbad Real Estate and Homes

Joey and Brian: Agreed. I happily accept the activity (and so do the lucky sellers). I hope we are returning to a more balanced market blessed with good rates and sensible financing programs.

Lenn: It sounds as if your sellers haven't accepted conditions yet. If buyers here paid $650k for a home two years ago, they know they would be lucky to break even today--and would be grateful to have a buyer. 

Perhaps that is the difference in our markets. Most of our sellers can't afford to "sit" out the market. Those who can,  have already withdrawn their listings. Perhaps this is why we are in recovery. San Diego now has a pool of motivated sellers and more confident buyers,

Dec 08, 2006 12:38 AM #7
Rainmaker
405,586
Suzanne Marriott
Keller Williams Arizona Realty - Anthem, AZ
Associate Broker, CLHMS, e-PRO
This bodes well for those of us who trust the market - but will be one in the eye for the bubble bursters!
Dec 08, 2006 02:19 AM #8
Rainmaker
246,976
Gena Riede
Riede Real Estate, Lic. 01310792 - Sacramento, CA
Real Estate Broker - Sacramento CA Real Estate (916) 417-2699

Roberta, send the overflow up to Sacramento. It's realatively the same status quo here with buyers on the fence. Many sellers are now educated and ready and willing...buyers where are you???????

My assumption is that you possibly don't have the tremendous new builders out there that we do here. It may take awhile to recover. But, I'm confident that it will turn and so spread the wealth, girl! 

Dec 08, 2006 03:38 AM #9
Rainmaker
315,122
Brian Brady
San Diego VA Home Loans/858-777-9751 - San Diego, CA
858-777-9751

Roberta and Lenn

Our markets have similar price points for the size of the homes.  However, our median county income is around $65K while Montgomery County's is about $95K.  That might explain the resiliency in your market, Lenn 

Dec 08, 2006 05:19 PM #10
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Rainmaker
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Roberta Murphy

Carlsbad Real Estate and Homes
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