Mortgage market 09/26-09/30/11 wrap up.
Well contrary to what I expected to see today (being rates don't usually fair well on a Friday as many hedge down going into the weekend to protect their positions come Monday). But as all things, lately anyway, the exact opposite of what should happen, and is patterned and charted for, happens??
The FNMA 3.5 Coupon opened up with a strong gap up of +34bps and has been holding close to that level since. The 10Y is also fairing equally well and it is currently at +20/32 and is currently Yielding 1.931%.
Why? here is today's market moving news...
- Personal Income: Actual -0.1%, prior 0.3% (consensus 0.1%)
- Personal Spending: Actual 0.2%, prior 0.8% (consensus 0.2%)
- PCE Prices - Core: Actual 0.1%, prior 0.2% (consensus 0.2%)
- Chicago PMI: Actual 60.4, prior 56.5 (consensus 54.0)
- Michigan Sentiment: Actual 59.4, prior 57.8 (consensus 57.5)
So all in all its not terrible... who am I kidding of course its terrible but its actually (some) showing signs of life.
Personal income down - no shocker there that is the vibe we get from all that we deal with. its tough right now and that is just the fact
Personal Spending - way below last report and even 1/2% below revised forecasts! Just points to reality Americans are not comfortable with their situation, with the leadership in Washington and the direction this country and economy is pointed.
PCE Prices - basically flat but again it is below last report so not the direct one hopes when begging for signs of recovery
Chicago PMI - this index is actual the winner today, beat expectations and beat last report up almost 4 points!
Michigan Sentiment - Again terrible but not as bad as it could be. It is a little over 1.5 points over last report and shows that the ones making up this report are a little more optimistic than last month.
Summary - LOL yeah, we have a long way to go. Doesn't mean sit in a cave, there are opportunities all around you, you just have to look for them. Things will eventually recover, our economy will get back on track, we will (hopefully) get new leadership that tosses this politics as usual BS out the window and attacks issues not each other. To the next leader we bring on board if they buck the current trend, they can make their name live among the ranks of the heroes we were all taught about in elementary school, Washington, Lincoln, Roosevelt and even Kennedy & Reagan made significant marks and improvements. Not bending to special interest (my opinion they should be called Mafia as that is how they act).
Don't give up even in these tough times the housing market has become a treasure trove of deals and opportunity that otherwise we would have never seen. Make sure when you look you see the glass 1/2 full NOT empty!
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