Predicting The Future?

By
Real Estate Agent with Joe Manausa Real Estate 8508880888

I figured a great way to start a new week would be to discuss the concept of seasonality. The Tallahassee Real Estate Market, like any other industry or market, experiences different levels of sales during the different times of the year. This effect is known as Seasonality.

We measure seasonality in order to predict the levels of sales we should expect each month. This is very helpful for budgeting in the Tallahassee Real Estate Brokerage Business, but it is also helpful when trying to predict how current market conditions are going to play-out over the next few months. The following table shows, as a percentage of annual sales, how the sales occur over the course of a typical year. These figures were calculated by using the sales in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market over the past five years. I have included four different groups in the table, single family homes (SF), Condo/Townhomes (CT), Mobile Homes (MH), and Lot sales (Lots).

 

MonthSFCTMH
Jan6.2%5.4%7.9%6.0%
Feb6.3%5.3%6.9%6.1%
Mar8.1%7.2%8.5%13.0%
Apr8.3%6.8%7.5%11.8%
May8.9%9.0%9.5%8.2%
Jun10.5%10.9%9.0%6.5%
Jul10.0%11.1%8.5%8.5%
Aug10.6%15.4%8.8%8.8%
Sep8.4%8.5%8.7%8.8%
Oct7.9%8.5%7.8%8.0%
Nov6.6%5.9%6.9%5.8%
Dec8.1%6.1%10.0%8.4%

 

As you can tell, the busiest time of the year is during the months of June through August. Perhaps more people move during the summer months due to a lesser effect on school-age children. Who really knows.... The table above is graphed below.

 

Finally, we can take what we determined above and look at our current market conditions. The figures below are the actual sales in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market this year (Leon County statistics), plus the anticipated finish applying our seasonality figures.

 


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Joe Manausa, MBA, CRB, CRS | Broker / Owner | Century 21 First Realty

2365 Centerville Road | Tallahassee, Florida 32308 | 850-386-2001 | http://www.manausa.com/

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Anonymous
MOJO

Hi Joe,

How is the rental market in Tallahassee? How long does take you rent a house out on average?

Thanks

 

Oct 29, 2007 10:53 AM #1
Rainer
38,979
Ray Perry
CENTURY 21 The Neil Company Real Estate - Roseburg, OR
Realtor, CRS, GRI, e-PRO

Interesting presentation.  Perhaps too much information.  Since SF is the leading indicator and lots are the future homes that will be built you can predict somewhat the seasonal changes by looking at these two types.  Lots may be a long range indicator, housing starts should go along with it.  Sales of new and existing homes is the real indicator.  Perhaps a quarterly chart would be a better chart as it is able to use more numbers over a longer period of time allowing it to be more consistent.  Sometimes the simpler the better.

Here is a chart of price trends for my county for SF:

graph

 

Oct 29, 2007 11:20 AM #2
Rainmaker
1,162,133
Joe Manausa
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Hey MOJO,

The market is pretty solid. The key is knowing what type of property you have and when to set the lease period for. Student rentals are very easy to rent from May through mid-August, but they get very cold after that. The rest of the market is less seasonal. Typically, during the hottest months, we'll get a unit rented in less than three weeks. This time a year, we're looking at a month to a month-and-a-half.

Oct 29, 2007 11:46 AM #3
Rainmaker
1,162,133
Joe Manausa
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Hey Ray, thanks for the comment.

I think you and I are looking at two very different things. My information is the average of five years' worth of information for the purpose of determining seasonality (what time of year sales occur). Your information is chronological and shows the growth of your market. Great information, just not what I was looking for in this specific post.

Oct 29, 2007 11:48 AM #4
Rainer
54,888
Gaylen Thornton
Desert Heritage Real Estate - Surprise, AZ
Wouldn't it be nice if we could really predict the future?
Oct 29, 2007 11:51 AM #5
Rainmaker
1,162,133
Joe Manausa
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate
Thanks Gaylen, but what fun would that be.....?
Oct 29, 2007 12:28 PM #6
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Rainmaker
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