This week at a charity event in nearby La Jolla, Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft spoke about the immediate future of the San Diego housing economy. The following synopsizes the key points in his speech:
*The odds of another crippling national economic recession are 1-in-3.
*Home prices will recover slowly because the unemployment rate will not fall significantly and the national economy will still lag.
*Local home prices should push down 2-3% in 2012, but due to continued low interest rates overall home sales should rise in 2012.
*Continued high unemployment rates locally can only mean that more foreclosures are imminent.
*Prices for homes will likely bottom out in early 2102.
*Home buyer affordability is at an all time high, but economic insecurity will prevent people from making high-end purchases.
*Unemployment or lack of income was the major cause of foreclosures in the US in 2010, followed by marital difficulties.
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