The “Consultants” Were the Canaries in the Coal Mine!

I’ve often thought that so-called "consultants" were the proverbial "canaries in the coal mine" - the unrecognized harbingers of trouble coming in the job market.  Atlanta had a lot of “consultants.”  Today, they would belong to that large group we now call the “shadow unemployed.” They aren’t counted in the nation’s 9%+ unemployment figure and are more troubling to me than more recently unemployed.  The “consultants” I knew were middle class, educated (sometimes very well educated) and carried business cards.  Some had periodic work while some had been unemployed “consultants” for years.  But, they didn’t like thinking of themselves as unemployed. 

The trend toward “consultants” started much earlier but accelerated in Atlanta in the early 2000’s when large companies shed middle management.  Managers with years of service and approaching their years of highest earning potential, found themselves cast adrift.  Many newly unemployed “consultants” went right back to work as sub-contractors.    

Only now they were entrepreneurs, in business for themselves with a single Client, their former employer.  Historically, lenders required 2 years of tax returns for the self-employed because 90% of all small business ventures fail.  But in the early 2000s, anyone could get a loan and, although, they were actually unemployed, their cash flow was good and many went on as though nothing had changed.  They bought homes, cars and sent teenagers to college. 

If their budgets were strained, home values were one reassuring bright spot in an increasingly complicated financial picture. If the work wasn’t steady, if cash flow was an issue, there was home equity to fall back on for a family emergency or retirement.  I imagine some acknowledged to themselves and their spouses that they would never restart their previous careers.  I’m sure others were in deep denial about future prospects and their employment status. 

While their home prices continued to rise, the underpinnings of the US economy continued to erode away.  Who knew those two things were so synomous with one another.  In 2005, we left Atlanta and made the move to Wilmington.  I cannot say I recognized the "canaries in the coal mine".