Mortgage Market Week of 12/5 - 12/10/11
This week comes with much anticipation of the holiday shopping season.
- Will retailers continue to show strong signals of an improved economy?
- Will consumers release the tight grip they have had on savings and spend some of the hard earned cash?
Time will tell but if the Malls are any indication we could be on pace for the best year in the last 5 years!
It seems that the signs of days gone by are passed. I get it that we are by no means out of the woods but I like seeing the busyness. I like seeing people out and enjoying themselves. I like seeing restaurants crowded and stores filled with people. Its almost like we went to sleep for a few years but the giant is awakening from his slumber?
Whatever you want to call it I like the signs I am seeing for our economy. Now what does that mean for mortgage markets? Well its likely to cause a stall in falling and potentially show signs of rising interest rates. I am not an alarmist as I also get the fact next year (or for the next 11 months) we are going to be barraged with political spin and finger pointing but since this president has an opportunity for re-election i do not expect to see rates take any major movement up or down from this point. Maybe a 1/2% higher by mid 2012 but that's probably about all we can sustain at this point.
Could we drop further? - I highly doubt it. We are at historic lows and without some major event from the EU or a drastic spike in unemployment I think we are as low as we are going.
Here is the technical data from the FNMA coupon and the 10Y treasury.
FNMA 3.5 is currently sitting just above 102 (nice as it took over a month to break that glass ceiling and it may now be a short term floor) currently the FNMA coupon is at 102.063 down from its intraday high of 102.188
The 10Y treasury is doing a little worse than the FNMA coupon and is off -14/32 and its yields are just below 2.1% up from the days low of 2.062%.
Should be an interesting close to 2011 so if you are happy with pricing LOCK while markets are very favorable and remove the risk!
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