So now that we've done single re-caps of the segmented neighborhoods and surrounding communities of Missoula, lets put this data together in some easy to understand charts and data.
First off, looking at how each area did from 2010 to 2011 in terms of their median sales price. You'll see in the chart below that we're looking at most areas still are experiencing a negative affect on their median values over the course of 2010 to 2011. I had speculated that some areas could see a bit of median recovery in 2011 due to the exit of the overwhelming presence of first time home buyers. That speculation was largely wrong with the exception of the Mullan Road area which was highly influenced by 1st time home buyers.
Moving on, now we take a look at the DOM or days on market. This is for the sold homes only and isn't exactly a fair representation of what is going on in the market as it does not take homes that failed to sell into account. However it's the best of what we can do when looking at things historically. We can see that in many cases sellers over the past year in Missoula experienced extended market times.
Two down, two to go. This next chart is the one that is the "hot button" issue in our area, the impact of foreclosures. In each of my individual neighborhood blogs I'd reported the bulk number of foreclosures. This chart compares 2010 to 2011 again, as the others have. However it compares not the bulk number but the % of overall sales in the area that were foreclosed homes selling. So when you see a result showing 10% in 2011 that means 10% of the total sales in that area for 2010 were foreclosed homes. Hope that makes sense, I wanted to put this together in a format that is easier to read and understand.
And finally absorption rates, which represents the amount of inventory currently listed for sale in each neighborhood/area. These rates were taken from my neighborhood blogs which calculated the last 12 months worth of area sales and compared it to the amount of listings currently actively listed or under contract. What this means is that based upon the last 12 months activity, if things remained the same, it would take this many months for this inventory to be sold.
Absorption rates change daily, so this is really just a snapshot of right now. New listings and sales impact rates regularly, however this 12 month look back shows a little more well-rounded and stable numbers as compared to what a 30 day look back would do.
I added two lines for reference, based upon a general rule of thumb. Anything over the red line (10 months or more) represents what would be considered a buyer's market as right now these areas are in over-supply. Anything below the orange line (4 months or less) represents what would be considered a seller's market as right now there is an under-supply of listings. In between the two lines is a more "normal" market with a healthy amount of both buyers and currently listed inventory.