Dry Martinis and Home Buying

By
Industry Observer

If you want a dry martini, it takes about one part dry vermouth and eleven parts vodka or gin.  Stir or shake depending on your beliefs, and drown two olives.  Eleven to one is what makes the martini dry.

So you don't want to make a martini?  You want to buy a home?  Eleven to one is also what home buyers should remember when they are trying to decide whether they should buy now or wait a while.  If the interest rate on your home loan increases, the price of the home must decrease at an approximate ratio of eleven to one to keep the same monthly payment.  If rates increase by 1%, your buying power dropped about eleven percent.  So, that $200,000 home you like would need to drop in price to under $180,000 just to compensate for the increase in interest. 

Right now, interest rates are about as low as they can get.  They may remain the same or close, but it's not likely that there will be substantial rate decreases.  It would not be particularly surprising to see a 1% increase in rates in 2012. Will the price of homes you like drop by 11% this year? 

If you're trying to decide whether to buy now or wait a while, keep in mind that, even if home prices were to drop, there's a fair chance that you may have to pay more to own that lower priced home.  It takes more luck than knowledge to predict the future accurately, but your plans will be affected by the home price change to loan interest change ratio.  While you're trying to sort things out, keep that dry martini in mind.  Eleven to one.

Do you need some information to help with your lifestyle upgrade decision?  For market-specific information about your neighborhood of choice, your choice for a style of home, and your choice for a price target, call or email now. If you would like to arrange a convenient time for a home buying strategy consultation, call me now.  There is no charge or obligation for this consultation.  

 

Posted by

 Mike Carlier  Lakeville, MN

 

612-916-3033

 

Comments (10)

Wayne Zuhl
Remax First Realty II - Cranford, NJ
The Last Name You'll Ever Need in Real Estate

Great analogy - and very convincing argument. thanks for posting!

Jan 12, 2012 04:02 AM
Chris Ann Cleland
Long and Foster REALTORS®, Gainesville, VA - Bristow, VA
Associate Broker, Bristow, VA

That's about as basic as you could boil it down to.  And with the martini analogy I have no choice but to feature you.

Featured in the group:  Bartender, Make it a Double.

Jan 12, 2012 04:19 AM
Mike Carlier
Lakeville, MN
More opinions than you want to hear about.

Wayne & Jean, martini recipes are generally easier to remember than ratios of price change to interest rates:)

Chris Ann, Thanks for the feature, and I'm glad you waited until noon.  Also, the group pic reminded me that there was an error in the original post which is now corrected.  Did you notice?

Jan 12, 2012 04:26 AM
William Feela
WHISPERING PINES REALTY - North Branch, MN
Realtor, Whispering Pines Realty 651-674-5999 No.

Mike...Great info and it should make people sit up and notice.   Talking with one of my lenders, they recently had a 1/4% increase.  Not a lot, but still it is an increase.  It means a higher payment for the people yet to buy.

Jan 12, 2012 04:39 AM
Vern Eaton
Askov, MN
Realtor 651-674-7449

I may have to use this in the future.  I love the analogy...I'll drink to that one!

Jan 12, 2012 05:56 AM
Michael S. Bolton
Michael S. Bolton,Inc. - Zimmerman, MN
MN Appraiser

Mike~Great way of making a point. "If I had only known..." will be the mantra when prices and rates start to go up. Have a great day!

Jan 12, 2012 06:53 AM
Mike Carlier
Lakeville, MN
More opinions than you want to hear about.

Bill, that's about 2 3/4% in buying power, enough to matter in many situations.

Vern, my suggestion is that, when explaining home prices, interest rates, and martinis to clients, suggest they add an olive or two suffed just before serving with a good blue cheese.  My preference is Shepard's Way Farms Big Woods Blue, made with sheeps milk in Nerstrand, MN.

Michael, thanks for reading and commenting.  It's hard to imagine rates not going up sometime tis year.

 

Jan 13, 2012 12:24 AM
Marti Steele Kilby, CRS
Steele Group Realty - La Mesa, CA
Broker/Owner, San Diego, CA

Great post and I love the idea of the olives stuffed with blue cheese....kinda makes my mouth water. 

Jan 14, 2012 12:32 PM
Mike Carlier
Lakeville, MN
More opinions than you want to hear about.

Marti, not only does it add to the martini experience, but it also mitigates a certain amount of mold too.  Do it for the environment:)

Jan 14, 2012 11:34 PM
Jimmy Phan
KELLER WILLIAMS REALTY IN MOORESVILLES, NC - Hickory, NC
Phan real estate group in hickory

love your analogy Mike and love that martini as well.

thks for sharing

jimmy phan

Jan 17, 2012 02:27 PM

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