Supply Is Down — Prices Should Go Up!
As of January 1, 2012, there were only 26 homes listed for sale in Oakmont. Combined with the fact that 52 homes were sold in Oakmont during the fourth quarter of 2011, this means that we start the New Year with only 1.5 months of inventory. In any normal market, this would be considered an extreme seller’s market. In any normal market, this severe shortage of inventory would result in a dramatic increase in prices. Yet prices remain stagnant and some homes sit on the market unsold even after several months. What’s going on?
It’s a combination of issues. First of all, the spike in foreclosures and short sales (in the outside world, not so much in Oakmont) is artificially holding down prices. The second problem is that buyers think the crisis may not yet be over, and prices may slip even further. The third problem is the banks. They caused this housing crash by lending money to unqualified borrowers. Now they’ve gone from one extreme to the other, and they’re making it very difficult even for highly qualified borrowers to succeed in obtaining a loan.
So where (and more to the point, when) will it all end? The year is starting off with a lot of encouraging economic news, at least in this country. The biggest problem facing the world economy now is the unresolved situation in Europe, where governments have still not taken the steps required to get their sovereign debt problems under control. By this time next year, it is likely that at least one country will exit the eurozone (anyone still have any leftover drachmas?) and the rest will clean up their act so that we can get on with a long-overdue worldwide economic recovery.
We are fortunate that most home sales in Oakmont are still the old-fashioned kind — where the seller still has equity in the home and the buyer pays all cash, or with a substantial cash down payment against a conventional loan. And maybe that’s why our inventory is sitting at only 1.5 times average monthly sales, even if prices have not yet started going back up.
Oakmont Homes Sold from October 1 to December 31, 2011
| Address | Model | BR | Bath | Sq Ft | Price |
| 7 Valley Green St | Sequoia 15C | 1 | 1 | 888 | $154,000 |
| 192 Mountain Vista Cir | Sequoia 16B | 2 | 2 | 1284 | $175,000 |
| 64 Aspen Meadows Cir | Sequoia 16B | 2 | 2 | 1284 | $179,500 |
| 8964 Oak Trail Dr | Sycamore 24 | 2 | 2 | 1230 | $185,000 |
| 346 Green Field Cir | Poplar - Expanded | 2 | 2 | 1239 | $214,000 |
| 6546 Meadowridge Dr | Sycamore 24 - Expanded | 2 | 2 | 1318 | $225,000 |
| 6378 Stone Bridge Rd | Laurelwood | 2 | 2 | 1419 | $225,000 |
| 42 Aspen Meadows Cir | Sequoia 16C | 2 | 2 | 1172 | $226,500 |
| 6533 Stone Bridge Rd | Sycamore 22 | 2 | 2 | 1304 | $235,000 |
| 5 Oak Leaf Pl | Oakwood | 2 | 2 | 1419 | $237,500 |
| 12 Oakgreen St | Poplar - Expanded | 2 | 2 | 1074 | $241,500 |
| 9 Pin Oak Pl | Madrone | 2 | 2 | 1352 | $274,000 |
| 101 Old Oak Ln | Manzanita | 2 | 2 | 1401 | $282,000 |
| 6497 Meadowridge Dr | Redwood | 3 | 2 | 1686 | $289,000 |
| 7242 Oakmont Dr | Redwood | 3 | 2 | 1686 | $293,000 |
| 14 Oak Forest Ln | Sylvan 33 | 2 | 2 | 1420 | $294,000 |
| 7080 Oak Leaf Dr | Pinewood | 2 | 2 | 1390 | $299,000 |
| 8852 Hood Mountain Cir | Laurelwood | 2 | 2 | 1419 | $300,000 |
| 424 Deerfield Cir | Beechwood - Expanded | 2 | 2 | 1354 | $300,000 |
| 423 Singing Woods Pl | Sylvan 32 | 2 | 2 | 1178 | $300,000 |
| 420 Pythian Rd | Cypress | 2 | 2 | 1391 | $300,000 |
| 7404 Oak Leaf Dr | Redwood | 3 | 2 | 1718 | $300,000 |
| 349 Pythian Rd | Manzanita | 3 | 2.5 | 1600 | $302,750 |
| 114 Valley Lakes Dr | Manzanita | 2 | 2 | 1401 | $305,000 |
| 416 White Oak Dr | Sequoia 16A | 2 | 2 | 1322 | $305,000 |
| 6489 Meadowridge Ct | Cypress | 2 | 2 | 1391 | $320,500 |
| 6563 Meadowridge Dr | Redwood | 3 | 2 | 1686 | $329,000 |
| 428 Pythian Rd | Cypress - Expanded | 2 | 2 | 1691 | $345,000 |
| 6524 Stonecroft Ter | Manzanita | 2 | 2 | 1401 | $345,000 |
| 7019 Overlook Dr | Sylvan 34 | 3 | 2 | 1618 | $370,000 |
| 166 Oak Shadow Dr | Manzanita | 2 | 2 | 1401 | $380,000 |
| 7231 Oakmont Dr | Redwood | 3 | 2 | 1835 | $380,000 |
| 8932 Oakmont Dr | Monterey | 2 | 2 | 1891 | $400,000 |
| 7095 Oak Leaf Dr | Birch | 2 | 2 | 1665 | $410,000 |
| 8849 Hood Mountain Way | Redwood | 3 | 2 | 1686 | $415,000 |
| 341 Golf Ct | Manzanita | 2 | 2 | 1727 | $415,000 |
| 7550 Oakmont Dr | Sonoma | 3 | 2 | 1862 | $419,000 |
| 433 Oak Vista Dr | Custom | 2 | 2 | 1809 | $420,000 |
| 370 Singing Brook Cir | Annadel | 3 | 2.5 | 2188 | $449,000 |
| 58 Oak Island Cir | Cedar | 3 | 2 | 1955 | $459,000 |
| 7563 Ferroggiaro Way | Residence Plan 4 | 3 | 2 | 2000 | $465,000 |
| 6 Valley Lakes Pl | Custom | 3 | 3 | 2027 | $475,000 |
| 106 Oak Shadow Dr | Cedar | 3 | 2 | 1955 | $510,000 |
| 6820 Fairfield Dr | Birch - Expanded | 2 | 2 | 1970 | $510,000 |
| 6440 Meadow Creek Ln | Cedar | 3 | 2 | 1955 | $520,000 |
| 7275 Oakmont Dr | Cedar | 3 | 2 | 1955 | $535,000 |
| 117 Jasie Ln | Residence Plan 1 | 2 | 2 | 1973 | $535,000 |
| 428 Woodley Way | Sonoma | 3 | 2 | 1858 | $550,000 |
| 6288 Meadowridge Dr | El Verano | 3 | 2.5 | 2281 | $550,000 |
| 328 Miramonte Way | Sugarloaf - Expanded | 2 | 2 | 2186 | $560,000 |
| 401 Crestridge Dr | Sonoma | 3 | 2 | 2026 | $561,000 |
| 6267 Meadowstone Dr | El Verano | 3 | 2.5 | 2281 | $575,000 |
This information is based on sales reported in Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, Inc. (BAREIS) and is not verified and is subject to change. Listings represented may not have been listed or sold by Mike Higgins or Paula Lewis.
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