I look forward to seeing the data 12 months from now; I suspect the picture will not be quite as bad. Just as the picture was not as good in 05 and 06, as we thought
We have a hazy mess of a market picture
Inventory numbers look quite high
Unemployment is up; No question as to that, the headline leads you to think, this is Detroit now, well the numbers they are comparing against are record lows. So.........?
http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071117/BUSINESS/711170477/1075
Lee County's jobless rate rose to 5.3 percent in October, the highest rate
| Quote: |
| recorded in more than 13 years. The rate is up only slightly from 5.2 percent in September, but it is dramatically above the 2.8 percent rate in October 2006, according to data released Friday by the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation. About 15,800 people were out of work during the month. The rate last reached 5.3 percent in August 1994. The rate that year had gone as high as 5.7 percent. It was as high as 7 percent in 1993 |
Oh yeah check the date for the last record High, in the tail end of a real estate bust--- boom to follow, So this is the same old thing we keep doing. The key is learning to see thru it.
The sales numbers are down big. Thru the Realtor Assoc. Public records are showing different results
Problem with 99 percent of the Real Estate Numbers we see, they are scientifically obtained with an agenda at heart. Case Shiller withstanding. That's my personal view; please feel free to prove it wrong
I t reminds me of a "Real Estate Investor" loose term
Sold "Option's" sorry assignments of contract
The momentums of the market keep the "greater fools" coming (late 05 and 06)
assignments of contract, were safer to do than going on title but.....? You are setting these people up to fail
So you win, they lose.
I ran these types of deals in the Yahoo group the REIA has, Less than 30 percent of these resulted in a deed being recorded, yet claims of 10 to 12 sales a month, blah blah blah, hype, salesmanship and emotion, The numbers showed Different, NO one has the time or interest to run the numbers. Its a lot more fun to run with the crowd. I think he was so new, he had no idea what was going on, or coming, being at best a QTR Cycle guy himself. Well lack of acumen has him selling everything but real estate now. Problem is now, the newbie's think he is an expert, LOL In hindsight, with the emotion out of the picture, none of these would have sold. I guess its more about timing and luck
Than skill.The light of day exposures things. I look at emtion as the darkness, time makes the darkness go away. In the end, we all are this guy to some extent, fooling ourselves with random thoughts and events Maybe education is the light of day. RE people tend to read only on sales and marketing, so they sharpen their skills to sell, while still living in the dark Here is a question...
How many of these half built houses will really get built? History shows, the lenders will tear them down; it's cheaper to take the loss. The City and County code guys will get them torn down
There are some Japanese Groups, cherry picking Coral Lakes
I have just implemented a marketing plan thru the Snow Belt, from recent experience, its COLD up their, I dealt with ice on the windshield one Am, that was enough for me.
Greg Fous just opened a Real Estate Franchise geared towards Europe; I am curious how that is going
If you are marketing out of state out of Country please share your results
_________________
Jeff Tumbarello
H. G. Wells - "Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe."
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