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New home contruction Natioanlly end of the year 2011

By Howard Sumner

Industry Observer with Howard Sumner Consulting

January 30, 2012 12:20 AM

When reviewing the information about new construction whether permits, starts, or sales, if as many talking heads profess, that housing is “recovering” why are all categories 52 to 59% off the fifty year averages and down 72 to 76% from the peaks. And construction employment has dropped from 8,045,000 million people employed to 5,436,000 million people employed. The question i have to ask myself, if you go from no pulse in intensive care to a pulse are “recovering” or just not dead.

actual total for year	permit issued		start of construction
		multi	single		multi	single	single sales
2010:	Year to Date	604.6	447.3		586.9	471.2	323
2011:	Year to Date	611.9	413.7		606.9	428.6	302
year over year + or -	1.21%	-7.51%		*3.41%*	*-9.04%*	-6.50%

*seasonally adjusted*
	permits issued				permits issued total
	one unit structure				includes multi family
permits issued		413.7			611.9

peak year		1682			2219
permits % drop from peak		75%			72%
50 year average		911			1383
permits % drop from 50 year		55%			56%

movement up from Bottom	353	17%		522	17%

	housing started				starts total
	one unit structure				includes multi family
starts		428.6			606.9

peak year		1611			2357
starts % drop from peak		73%			74%
50 year average		1056			1481
starts % drop from 50 year		59%			59%

movement up from Bottom	360	19%		520	17%


	housing sales
	one unit structure
new single family sales	302

peak year July 2005		1283
sales % drop from peak		76%
48 year average from 1963	628
sales % drop from 48 year average		52%
Bottom August 2010
movement up from Bottom	278	9%