Why Some Neighborhoods Sell Slower Than Other Comparable Neighborhoods

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Piney Z home sales were down significantly in 2011, and a new "low" was hit with only 28 homes sold in 2011, down 10% from 2010. This means we have seen 8 straight declining years, something that I have not seen often from the rest of the Tallahassee real estate market.

Typically, when we see unit sales decline faster than the rest of the market, we are experiencing a Tallahassee neighborhood where home owners are “holding on” trying to find higher prices. This can work for a short period of times in a stronger market, but at some point, capitulation will kick-in and we'll see major price declines as Piney Z home sellers compete with each other for the declining buyers.

I suspect we will start to see homeowners begin to be overcome by the market momentum this year and home values will likely decline at a rapid rate.

This has happened in other areas of the Tallahassee real estate market when home sellers held onto their asking price while the rest of the market continued to decline. Don’t expect Piney Z home sales levels to return until home sellers begin to price their homes competitively with the rest of the homes for sale in Tallahassee.

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Map of Piney Z Home Sales

The following map shows Piney Z Home Sales for the past few years (you must view the map on the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog site). Just click on any red dot to see the details of the sale.

Map Of Piney Z Home Sales

Piney Z Home Prices

Piney Z Home Prices have dropped from a high average of $260K established in 2006, to the current level of $192K set last year (it's too early to establish a price point for 2012). This is a decline of 26% which is stronger than much of the rest of the Tallahassee housing market, but falling fast. The graph below shows unit sales (green for arms length, red for distressed sales) and average prices are plotted in brown.

Piney Z Home Prices

Piney Z Home Values

Piney Z home values have dropped even slower than prices, with the high in 2006 of $145 per square foot having dropped 23% to $111 per square foot in 2011. If I were a homeowner needing to sell a home in the next few years, I would sell it now and sell it fast. Value changes will catch up with the rest of Tallahassee, and this means that if you must sell a home in Piney Z, the highest value that you will receive over the next five to seven years is right now.

Piney Z Home Values

Piney Z Home Sales By Type

When we look at Piney Z home sales, segregated by property type, we see something a bit unusual... Last year, the average townhome in Piney Z sold for a bit higher than in previous years, while the average single family Piney Z home value plummeted. I think we'll see this trend (for town homes) reverse this year, as single family homes drop down close in price to single family homes.

Piney Z Home Sales By Type




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Erv Fleishman
Realty Associates - Boca Raton, FL
Luxury Prop Specialist Realty Associates

Well done presentation. Switch to stock market analysis and cash in every day. Meanwhile, try and convince someone their diamond is not such a jewel.

Feb 01, 2012 02:02 AM #1
Margaret Goss
Baird & Warner Real Estate - Winnetka, IL
Chicago's North Shore & Winnetka Real Estate

Yes, if you need to sell, do it now.  Prices are still declining (not at a rapid rate, but still declining) and if you are overpriced, the long market time will work against you.

Feb 01, 2012 02:22 AM #2
Anthony Daniels
Coldwell Banker - San Francisco, CA
SF Bay Area REO Specialist

It is quite surprising how some homes sell in some hoods in sF, especially in the $300k range.

Good post, thanks for sharing it.

Feb 01, 2012 02:48 AM #3
Richie Alan Naggar
people first...then business Ran Right Realty - Riverside, CA
agent & author

Good effort and info here...this should prove to be an interesting year as water (Real Estate) seeks its own levels

Feb 01, 2012 03:06 AM #4
Doug Rogers
Bayou Properties - Alexandria, LA
Your Alexandria Louisiana Agent

"But my Piney Z Plantation home has custom paint and a wood deck that my uncle built. Surely these numbers don't apply to MY HOUSE?"

 I've heard multiple versions of this reasoning on local listing appointments. Reality can be cruel.

Feb 01, 2012 05:05 AM #5
McMurray, PA

Great post.  I wish my blog looked more like yours.  Each street in a neighborhood will hold different values at least that is the way it is in the Pittsburgh market.  Some areas are more desirable than others.

Feb 01, 2012 08:15 AM #6
Michelle Francis
Tim Francis Realty LLC - Atlanta, GA
Realtor, Buckhead Atlanta Homes for Sale & Lease


Love the break out information on the latest Piney Z data!  Impressive. 

All the best, Michelle

Feb 01, 2012 09:03 AM #7
Joe Manausa
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Thanks Erv, and absolutely. A diamond in the rough.

Feb 01, 2012 10:53 AM #8
Joe Manausa
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Doug, I think that is one part of this business that will never change ... our home is our castle.

Feb 01, 2012 10:54 AM #9
Ed & Tracy Oliva
West USA Realty - Arizona - Fountain Hills, AZ
The Oliva Team Arizona Agents

I think ever neighborhood is different. Even street by street can be different. Good Luck in your area wiht your listings and sales.   E

Feb 01, 2012 12:28 PM #10
Christine Donovan
Donovan Blatt Realty - Costa Mesa, CA
Broker/Attorney 714-319-9751 DRE01267479 - Costa M

Joe - We saw that in some of our higher priced neighborhoods for a while as those who could held on.

Feb 01, 2012 02:52 PM #11
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