Here are the Thirteen Essential Un/Employment Definitions for any BLS Jobs Report discussion. Each of these is a smaller subset of something above it. Numbers are as of January 31, 2012 as available.
A: US Population ~313,000,000 (Everyone)
B: Civilian Noninstitutional Population ~242,270,000 (per BLS: Included are persons 16 years of age and older residing in the 50 States and the District of Columbia who are not inmates of institutions (for example, penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces.)
C: Civilian Labor Force ~154,400,000 (sum of E below: Employed and F: Unemployed – if you are not looking, you are no longer in the Labor Force and not in the calculations any more.)
D: Participation Rate 63.7% (simple math: C/B)
E: Employed ~141,637,000 (in B and working at least 1 hr per week, paid or self-employed)
F: Unemployed ~12,758,000 (in B and actively looking for work in past 4 weeks without a job)
G: Unemployment Rate ~8.3% (simple math: F/C; this is the Headline number also known as U-3)
NOW: Here are some more nuanced pieces needed to calculate the “Underemployed”
H: Marginally Attached to the Labor Force ~2,720,000 (not looking in past 4 wks, but were looking or employed in past 12 months)
I: U-6 Labor Force, incl Marginally Attached ~157,120,000 (simple math: C + H)
J: Part-time for Economic Reasons ~8,230,000 (Subset of E; working less than 35 hr/wk, because of slack economic conditions or because they could only find PT work, i.e., not by choice)
K: Part-time for Non-Economic Reasons ~18,636,000 (Subset of E; no overlap with J; PT by choice, e.g., students, extra money, etc.)
L: Underemployed ~23,708,000 (simple math: F + H + J; i.e., Unemployed, plus those no longer looking including discouraged, plus PT but wishing for FT)
M: U-6 Underemployed Rate: 15.1% (simple math L/I; sometimes called “the real unemployment rate”
There, in only half of the alphabet, every important number and definition you need to be legit in studying the unemployment reports from the BLS.
If you wish to find an easy-read article with more facts and charts to understand what people are arguing about on unemployment, this post from Mike Shedlock is worth the 5-10 minutes to read. Click here.
Here is a post from nearly 2 and 1/2 years ago with a look at unemployment and underemployment back then!
http://activerain.com/blogsview/1275119/unemployment-or-underemployment-
Dave, great explainations, thanks for sharing that, I always learn something here on AR.
Now this is a great post and full of very useful info and advice. Thank you Dave.
These are numbers the government does not want you to see. Since the State of the Union speech was given at the 8th grade level...numbers the President did not want to confuse us with.
Thank you David and John - feel free to re-blog or tweet this, I typed it up as a reference to refer back to. It will be easier to find as a post.
Edward - it is much easier to understand than they make it in the confusing BLS reports. Interesting how filtering through their reports and their Glossary, it can be reduced to a few simple terms and numbers. I am thrilled that jobs grew a quarter million in January as you will see if you read yesterday's blog post by clicking here.
And I am happy that Afghan/Iraq Veterans Unemployment dropped from 13.1 to 9.3%. But I do fear that the overall January numbers are unsustainable and will climb back up with so many underemployed and Not in theLabor Market who will want to return to full employment.
Dave - Great presentation of the realities of the employment situation. Sadly, the average consumer looks at the U-3 number--the one most often discussed in the media and promoted by govt--and assumes that conditions are much better than they really are. And if you add in those of us who are self employed and earning significantly less or zero, the economic picture appears far less rosy than the headlines indicate.
Dave, great post! Employment numbers are sometimes like the accountant joke "How much is 2 + 2" Answer "How much do you want it to be?" Low numbers of reported unemployment are used by the government to boost consumer attitudes and foster faith in the economy. Another way is that manipulation of the numbers could be called 'Propaganda' …which in effect are meant to deceive or mislead the populace. You are correct in your presentation to show all of the numbers because they all matter if one is to really grasp the state of the economy. It is my opinion that the economy has not improved much in the last few years and many of my friends and associates can readily attest to this through the continued hardships they continue to face.
John - You are absolutely right! I haven't worked into my thinking the impact of the self-employed "part-timers". So many are working as much as ever but getting paid half as much. Easily more than the 8.2M "part-time for economic reasons". I think the impact is that it shows the hidden depth of the problem. If that number is >8M added to the U-6 takes that number up by 5 pts to over 20%. I really think it is well over 8M too. And all the while we cheer the vapor of an "improvement" from 8.5 to 8.3%!
I don't think these self-employed PT people impact the speed with which the 8.3% recovers. You and I will still be employed as self-employed and not move over to those competing for the measely 250k jobs per month in good months. On the other hand, the other PT people will move over and dampen the recovery along with the Marginally Attached and the Out of Labor Force MIAs. The Self Employed recovery of income will be a gradual side benefit, unmeasured in all of this. Pray for job recovery and encourage government to help rather than hinder tha growth!
Thanks Jim. Funny how limited the improvement feels locally while the numbers show a steady strengthening in the unemployment number from 10 to 8.3.
Near 20% improvement and it doesn't feel like it at all. I suspect this chart may have something to do with it. This portends something ominous.
Here is a whole different take on how we are all unempoyed in the real estate world and a very positive spin on what we can do to become employed each day.
Click Here.
Bliss is a great motivator and marketer.
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