Market stats Lincoln school district, Ypsilanti Township 2/11/2012

By
Real Estate Appraiser with Massey & Associates

Information included below is one appraisers interpretation of the market. It is intended for the readers benefit only and is not guaranteed as accurate and is based on specific perameters disclosed below.

In this studyI looked at two different market segments over time in order to measure both what has happened to the market as well as current activity.

The first of the market segment includes all of the Lincoln school district going back 4-years, MLS sales only.In this segment there is a significant drop in price from year one to year two of the study, followed by a slight increase and then a slight decrease in prices. The overall square foot of the houses remained steady and the days on market on average declined slightly (the days on market may not be accurate as it does not account for periods where a house was withdrawn or expired and then re-listed a week or two later). In this segment, there are on average 400 sales per year (33.3 per month). Out of the 103 houses on the market, 35 are shown as under contract. This is a contract to listing ratio of almost 34% which indicates a very active market. In addition, there are only 68 houses available for sale that are not under contract, and at the 33.3 per month rate of absorption in general, the supply dwindles to just over 2-months’ worth of inventory.

 

 

 

 

The next market segment (above) includes only those properties in the defined market boundaries from Hitchingham to Bemis to Bunton and Textile, and only houses built between 2000 and 2011. This narrows the data considerably however shows that there is still an abundance of sales in this segment. As in the prior data run, there is a large decrease in median sales prices in year two of the study, followed by a slight market increase and then a slight market decline. The decline in the most recent segment erased the increase in the segment before it, and median gross living area remained relatively static. In this segment there is an average 168.25 sales per year (14 per month). With 43 houses on the market, and 23 under contract, there remain only 20 active listings available for sale. This is a contract to listing ratio of over 50% which shows a tremendous amount of activity in the market at present and based on historical absorption rates, indicates there is less than a 2-month supply of listings available at the moment.

 

 

 

The final segment of the market study includes only the immediate subdivision. The entire MLS was searched back to 2006, and the sales are arrayed in order of sale date. What is noted here is a continual decline from 2006 (the decline started earlier but is tracked in this study only since 2006) until present, with a general leveling of the decline to almost stable over the past year. This is in spite of a rapidly active market with significant buyer activity.

 

Above is net sales price (less concessions) over time

Below is net sales price per square foot over time

 

 

My interpretation of this data is that the market remains weak, due in part to the number of available short sales and bank owned properties, but there are signs of stability in prices occurring over the last few years, with only a slight decline since 2010. In general, due to intense interest (spurred on by reduced prices as well as reduced interest rates, which make ownership less expensive than rentals), I consider the market stable overall in spite of the slight decline noted above. The reader is cautioned however that these statistics present only a snapshot in time, and that market events could cause a rapid change to the data presented.

 

close

Re-Blogged 1 time:

Re-Blogged By Re-Blogged At
  1. Missy Caulk 02/21/2012 09:57 PM
Topic:
ActiveRain Community
Location:
Michigan Washtenaw County Ypsilanti Twp
Groups:
Michigan Real Estate
Appraisers
Tags:
appraisal
market statistics
ypsilanti township
lincoln school

Post a Comment
Spam prevention
Spam prevention
Show All Comments
Anonymous
ron prat

This is a great snapshot of this market with regards to the Lincoln school district. The analysis depicts and summarizes exactly what is happening, and has happened over the last four year period in a simplified format. Also, it indicates the current trend of the market and supports much of the news and other information that this economy is showing strong signs of a turn-around overall.

Clients will want and expect this level of detail and explanation in reports, and moreso as time goes on.

Great job Rachel!!!!!!

 

Feb 15, 2012 11:55 PM #1
Rainmaker
14,527
Rachel Massey
Massey & Associates - Saline, MI
Competent, independent, impartial and objective

Thank you Ron! I hope that people find my analysis useful. To me it is the one of the most important aspects of the appraisal process and certainly supports a position on whether the market is stable, increasing or declining. I prefer to just put what I come up with in my appraisals because it lets the client know my thought process for calling the market direction whatever it is.

Feb 16, 2012 12:57 AM #2
Ambassador
920,601
Missy Caulk
Missy Caulk TEAM - Ann Arbor, MI
Savvy Realtor - Ann Arbor Real Estate

Hi Rachel, I have the same gut feeling on Lincoln school district, it is stable but is not going back up. Until the short sales and foreclosures slow down considerably it will not. 

Which subdivison are you using in the graphs, if I may ask? 

 

Feb 16, 2012 03:11 AM #3
Rainer
305,958
Brad Rachielles
CENTURY 21 Peak, Ca BRE# 01489453 - Upland, CA
REALTOR, CDPE, Upland, CA

Welcome Rachel,

Glad to have you as a rainmaker. I think you will find really great people here that are supportive, interested in your posts and in you and your career. I found your analysis to be very interesting even though we are in widely divergent markets. Certainly, we'll be reading more of your contributions in the future. Have fun blogging and best of success.

Feb 22, 2012 12:36 AM #4
Post a Comment
Spam prevention
Show All Comments

What's the reason you're reporting this blog entry?

Are you sure you want to report this blog entry as spam?

Rainmaker
14,527

Rachel Massey

Competent, independent, impartial and objective
Ask me a question
*
*
*
*
Spam prevention