Information included below is one appraisers interpretation of the market. It is intended for the readers benefit only and is not guaranteed as accurate and is based on specific perameters disclosed below.
In this studyI looked at two different market segments over time in order to measure both what has happened to the market as well as current activity.
The first of the market segment includes all of the Lincoln school district going back 4-years, MLS sales only.In this segment there is a significant drop in price from year one to year two of the study, followed by a slight increase and then a slight decrease in prices. The overall square foot of the houses remained steady and the days on market on average declined slightly (the days on market may not be accurate as it does not account for periods where a house was withdrawn or expired and then re-listed a week or two later). In this segment, there are on average 400 sales per year (33.3 per month). Out of the 103 houses on the market, 35 are shown as under contract. This is a contract to listing ratio of almost 34% which indicates a very active market. In addition, there are only 68 houses available for sale that are not under contract, and at the 33.3 per month rate of absorption in general, the supply dwindles to just over 2-months’ worth of inventory.
The next market segment (above) includes only those properties in the defined market boundaries from Hitchingham to Bemis to Bunton and Textile, and only houses built between 2000 and 2011. This narrows the data considerably however shows that there is still an abundance of sales in this segment. As in the prior data run, there is a large decrease in median sales prices in year two of the study, followed by a slight market increase and then a slight market decline. The decline in the most recent segment erased the increase in the segment before it, and median gross living area remained relatively static. In this segment there is an average 168.25 sales per year (14 per month). With 43 houses on the market, and 23 under contract, there remain only 20 active listings available for sale. This is a contract to listing ratio of over 50% which shows a tremendous amount of activity in the market at present and based on historical absorption rates, indicates there is less than a 2-month supply of listings available at the moment.
The final segment of the market study includes only the immediate subdivision. The entire MLS was searched back to 2006, and the sales are arrayed in order of sale date. What is noted here is a continual decline from 2006 (the decline started earlier but is tracked in this study only since 2006) until present, with a general leveling of the decline to almost stable over the past year. This is in spite of a rapidly active market with significant buyer activity.
Above is net sales price (less concessions) over time
Below is net sales price per square foot over time
My interpretation of this data is that the market remains weak, due in part to the number of available short sales and bank owned properties, but there are signs of stability in prices occurring over the last few years, with only a slight decline since 2010. In general, due to intense interest (spurred on by reduced prices as well as reduced interest rates, which make ownership less expensive than rentals), I consider the market stable overall in spite of the slight decline noted above. The reader is cautioned however that these statistics present only a snapshot in time, and that market events could cause a rapid change to the data presented.