Most of the time, the multiple weather forecasts are similar. They all seem to get their information from the same computer model. Or the National Weather Service generates a forecast and the different weather stations and services just use that.
But then again, maybe not.
I went to look at the forecast for this weekend late on Wednesday, which of course is a long range forecast subject to change. But they were all over the place!
Here was the forecast from WRAL, rainy, with a high of 49 and a low of 44
Then there was the Weather Underground forecast,
sunny, with a high of 48 and a low of 28.
Ok, so the only thing similar about those two forecasts were the day and the high temperature. ????
So then I did find two that pretty much agreed, but they weren't the same as either of the first two:
These both agreed it would be rainy, with a high right around 50, and a low around 30.
These forecasts were so similar, that I wonder if the Weather Channel (on the left) simply took the National Weather Service's forecast (on the right) and pasted it in. Maybe so.
But either way, we have one forecast for sunny and three forecasts for rainy. Maybe it's jut me, but I think of those as complete opposites.
Then we have one forecast for a low of 44 and three forecasts for a low right around 30. Again, I don't think those are very similar.
Why just yesterday we had a forecast of 100% chance of rain in the morning, until it didn't actually rain in the morning and then it got downgraded to only a 70% chance.
And earlier this week, we had a forecast for a clear morning on Tuesday, with increasing clouds and a chance of showers in the afternoon. Well, Tuesday arrived with full clouds, and sprinkles, neither of which were in the forecast (and no, it wasn't the kind of sprinkles that go on your ice cream sundae). And Tuesday afternoon saw a period of sunshine. So another example of 100% wrong.
So, it does seem that often, even with all the technological advances, you'd better just look outside to see what the weather is really doing.