So it looks like I'll just have to guess

By
Home Builder with Winslow Homes

Most of the time, the multiple weather forecasts are similar.  They all seem to get their information from the same computer model.  Or the National Weather Service generates a forecast and the different weather stations and services just use that.

But then again, maybe not.

I went to look at the forecast for this weekend late on Wednesday, which of course is a long range forecast subject to change.  But they were all over the place!

Here was the forecast from WRAL, rainy, with a high of 49 and a low of 44

WRAL Sunday forecast

 

Weather Underground Sunday forecast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Then there was the Weather Underground forecast,

sunny, with a high of 48 and a low of 28.

 

 

Ok, so the only thing similar about those two forecasts were the day and the high temperature.  ????

 

So then I did find two that pretty much agreed, but they weren't the same as either of the first two:

National Weather Service Sunday forecast

Weather Channel Sunday forecast

These both agreed it would be rainy, with a high right around 50, and a low around 30.

 

These forecasts were so similar, that I wonder if the Weather Channel (on the left) simply took the National Weather Service's forecast (on the right) and pasted it in.  Maybe so.

 

But either way, we have one forecast for sunny and three forecasts for rainy.  Maybe it's jut me, but I think of those as complete opposites.

Then we have one forecast for a low of 44 and three forecasts for a low right around 30.  Again, I don't think those are very similar.

 


Why just yesterday we had a forecast of 100% chance of rain in the morning, until it didn't actually rain in the morning and then it got downgraded to only a 70% chance.


And earlier this week, we had a forecast for a clear morning on Tuesday, with increasing clouds and a chance of showers in the afternoon.  Well, Tuesday arrived with full clouds, and sprinkles, neither of which were in the forecast (and no, it wasn't the kind of sprinkles that go on your ice cream sundae).  And Tuesday afternoon saw a period of sunshine.  So another example of 100% wrong.

So, it does seem that often, even with all the technological advances, you'd better just look outside to see what the weather is really doing.

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Ambassador
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Dick Greenberg
New Paradigm Partners LLC - Fort Collins, CO
Northern Colorado Residential Real Estate

Hi Jeremy - You might as well guess, because that's all the weather service guys seem to be doing. It looks like they have all the bases covered, so at least someone's going to be right.

Feb 17, 2012 01:22 AM #1
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Charles Buell
Charles Buell Inspections Inc. - Seattle, WA
Seattle Home Inspector

Jeremy I too have noticed that these weather widgets seem to be all over the place---but I wonder if that is any different than it has ever been :)

Feb 17, 2012 01:31 AM #2
Rainmaker
635,293
Leesa Finley
RED Properties - Wake Forest, NC
RED Properties - Raleigh NC Real Estate

This has been the CRAZIEST winter ever - I don't see how they even try to forecast!  Either way - have a super awesome Saturday and just be prepared with shorts, flannels, an umbrella and sunscreen!  ;)

Feb 17, 2012 02:14 AM #3
Rainer
408,073
Jeremy Wrenn
Winslow Homes - Youngsville, NC
C.O.O., Winslow Homes

Dick, I think that seems to be the case.  I know they study, but the atmosphere keeps eluding their grasp!

Charles, I think they may be able to predict imminent weather events more accurately and sooner (as in minutes and hours sooner), but the forecasting outside of that seems to be just as unreliable as ever.

Leesa, it's pretty weird.  I'll be sure to get all that gear with me for tomorrow.  ;P

Feb 17, 2012 03:24 AM #4
Rainmaker
1,765,671
Tom Arstingstall, General Contractor, Dry Rot, Water Damage Sacramento, El Dorado County - (916) 765-5366
Dry Rot and Water Damage www.tromlerconstruction.com Mobile - 916-765-5366 - Placerville, CA
General Contractor, Dry Rot and Water Damage

I have given up in trying to guess the weather Jeremy, it seems that it is always hard to get a good solid answer.

Feb 17, 2012 04:54 PM #5
Rainer
408,073
Jeremy Wrenn
Winslow Homes - Youngsville, NC
C.O.O., Winslow Homes

Tom, that's about what we've gotten to.  We know that something might happen, but looks like we'll have to always decide last minute and let the customer know last minute as well.  :)

Feb 20, 2012 02:51 AM #6
Rainer
408,073
Jeremy Wrenn
Winslow Homes - Youngsville, NC
C.O.O., Winslow Homes

Oh, and to follow up, we did end up with a high of about 41, all rain all day, and then snow in the night with a low right around freezing.  So really, none of them had it right.  :)

Snow is melting away now, and it's only around in the shady spots.

Feb 20, 2012 02:52 AM #7
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Jeremy Wrenn

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