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Moral Hazard; The Bank Made Me Do It!

By
Mortgage and Lending with SUNSTREET MORTGAGE, LLC (BK-0907366, NMLS 145171) NMLS 223495

 I don't leave cash on my desk at the office.  You don't leave your keys in the car at the grocery store.  It creates a temptation for someone to make off with something of value that doesn't belong to them.

The term for creating such a temptation is Moral Hazard.  The risk in Moral Hazard is that someone will succumb to that temptation, with a result that's not desireable.  "The devil made me do it!"

That's what happened in the subprime debacle.  "Hey, it's not my fault.  They told me that even the banks called it a Liar's Loan."

Look for Moral Hazard to be the defense de jour in foreclosure proceedings that will be contested in the courts.

Does that sound ridiculous?  Do you think it flies in the face of personal responsibility?  Precedent exists in law, when an action deliberatley taken encourages the very risk-taking that one seeks to avoid.  Like leaving cash on your desk at the office, or leaving your car running and unlocked while you're in the grocery store.

Prediction by Mike in Tucson:  Rates will go back up soon. 

 Until this morning, the only Mervyn King I'd ever heard of is that Brit on the right--world champion at darts. 

There's another Briton named Mervyn King.  He's a Bank of England Governor.  Reporter John Fraher for Bloomberg did an article today on Governor Mervyn King, who predicts a second round of credit tightening unrelated to US subprime foreclosures, but directly related to Moral Hazard and the risk associated with it.  In short, the banks balance sheets are about to take a nose dive, tightening credit and driving credit costs higher. 

Don't get too comfortable with the current low rates. 

That's the opinion of this Tucson, Arizona mortgage lender.

Mike in Tucson

EDIT:  See related post by Active Rain's Mike Mueller on Lenderama:  Bad Loan Officer Collateral Damage

content copyright Michael Jones
photo courtesy Wikipedia

Mike Jones (Tucson Mortgage Company, LLC): Loan Officer in Tucson, Pima County, Arizona

Comments(29)

Lisa Ryan
Callaway Henderson Sotheby's International Realty - Montgomery, NJ
Selling Princeton,West Windsor and Montgomery Town
Mike~ I really hope your prediction is wrong.  We need to get rid of inventory and we need buyers who need these lower rates.  I'm not advocating giving loans away, but give a well qualified buyer a chance with a decent rate. 
Nov 29, 2007 06:27 AM
Peggy K.
Grand Property Virtual Tours - Buffalo Grove, IL
Illinois Virtual Tour Provider and Real Estate Photographer
Mike, I hope that's not the case and that you're wrong (for once)!
Nov 29, 2007 07:41 AM
Joan Mirantz
Homequest Real Estate - Concord, NH
Realtor, GRI, CBR, SRES - Concord New Hampshire
I think (just what we need...one more opinion) we all need to take it one day at a time. We can't change it anyway....and it's going to be a very long haul.
Nov 29, 2007 07:54 AM
Mike Jones
SUNSTREET MORTGAGE, LLC (BK-0907366, NMLS 145171) - Tucson, AZ
Mike Jones NMLS 223495

 Lisa, thanks for commenting.  Let's take your beautiful center hall Colonial that's under contract (congrats on that!)  It was listed for $599,000. 

Here's a make believe scenario.

Seller is strapped because he bought another home.  He agrees to a contract price of $550,000. and, after negotiations, agrees to pay $6,000. of the buyer's closing costs on top of his price concession.  The seller feels pressured, and is not happy.

Buyer has $150,000 to put down because of an inheritance, but the buyer is also in a tight position financially, and his real worry is making the $2,495 P&I mortgage payment on a $400,000 mortgage.  Buyer is anxious because that's more than he's used to spending on a mortgage. 

The buyer's agent's lender buddy had quoted 6.375%, 30 year fixed, with 1/2 origination on the GFE.  Yield spread would fatten the broker check by another 1.5%, so she's looking at a gross commission of $8,000. before her split with her employer.  It's been a while since the Loan Officer has had a pay day.

Because the deal's so tight, the buyer's agent prevails on the loan officer to lock the loan closer to par, cutting the LO's commission in half because the yield spread has vanished.  The buyer's rate is now 6.125%  The payment is $2,430.

Buyer is still a little anxious, but the concession mollifys him.  You're happy to have put the deal together, finally.  The Seller is relieved to have what looks to be a solid contract.  The buyer's agent / loan officer relationship, however, is fraying at the edges, because the agent leaned on the Loan Officer to reduce her commission.  Hey, maybe you and the buyer's agent both gave up some of your commission, too.  That's life, right?  And there are a lot of loan officers out there who will take the business if this one won't play ball.

That's what's happening in todays market.  Here's a better scenario.  At an 80% (or less) loan to value, the seller can contribute up to 6% towards the buyer's costs, not that the seller wants to do that.  But he's willing to do something.  How that contribution money is spent makes all the difference in the world.

Rewind to the afternoon your seller agreed to accept the offer of $550,000, with a $6,000 contribution toward closing costs.  You put on your Advisor hat, and suggest the following

Let's counter to the buyers agent as follows:  "Contract price shall be $558,000.  Seller agrees to contribute up to, but no more than $8,000 to buy down the interest rate on the buyer;s purchase money mortgage, and will contribute an additional $4,000 towards the buyer's closing costs."  That little suggestion does many good things:

  • The seller pockets an additional $2,000.  You get the credit!
  • The buyer gets an interest rate of 5.75% to brag about to his friends.  Even though the loan amount is now $408,000, the P&I payment is $2,380.  Buyer is no longer anxious.
  • Both agents get an improvement in their commission check.

(A bank won't go too low on the interest rate, because they have to pool loans and sell them on the secondary market. If you have a portfolio lender, though, you can go very low.  We did this for a foreign national and locked him at 4.5% for 30 years.  He thinks his realtor walks on water.  She had been in the business for all of 8 months!)

Lisa, this isn't a comment.  It's a post!

Mike in Tucson

Nov 29, 2007 08:01 AM
Russ Higgins
Credit Justice Services - Memphis, TN
Credit Justice Services
Good stuff, as always, Mike.  Thanks for the article. 
Nov 29, 2007 08:09 AM
Mike Mueller
Tech and Social Media Consultant - Walnut Creek, CA

Right on Mike!

Interestingly it was an Ed Rybczynski post  that kick started my mind about this.  In it he quoted a woman who said... 

"My husband and I were victimized by our mortgage broker, appraiser and lender."

Get ready, here it comes...

PS: thanks for the link love! 


Nov 29, 2007 08:55 AM
Teri Eckholm
Boardman Realty - White Bear Lake, MN
REALTOR Serving Mpls/St Paul North & East Metro
Mike--I just received a note from one of the loan officers I work with discussing this weeks low rates. She said that everytime that rates hit a historical low they will start to rise and won't be seen again for many months. Interesting...I think she agrees with your prediction.
Nov 29, 2007 10:55 AM
Billnulls Blog Florida Realty Professional
Charles Rutenberg Realty - Clearwater, FL
AHWD
Mike - thanks for the information -
Nov 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Ronald Miller
Monarch Mortgage - Fredericksburg, VA

Hello Mike,

Great post and I love the scenairo, keep up the good work.

Nov 29, 2007 12:05 PM
Lewis Poretz
Apex Home Loans - Annapolis, MD
Business Development Manager

Mike -   my gut tell me rates drop big time tomorrow based on more bad news concerning the economy....

just a hunch.

 


Nov 29, 2007 12:11 PM
Lisa Ryan
Callaway Henderson Sotheby's International Realty - Montgomery, NJ
Selling Princeton,West Windsor and Montgomery Town
Mike~ just checking back in.  You're right, make it a post!
Nov 29, 2007 12:29 PM
Katerina Gasset
The Gasset Group & Get It Done For Me Virtual Services - Provo, UT
Amplify Your Real Estate & Life Dreams!
Mike- And the rates are going to be lowered again, which I feel is not the right thing to do, We need to tighten our personal spending especially with credit cards and mortgages you may not be able to afford when your rate changes. Katerina
Nov 29, 2007 01:46 PM
Fran Gatti
RE/MAX Integrity - Medford, OR
Managing Principal Broker - RE/MAX Integrity

Mike,

I couldn't agree more.  Interest rates are going up.

Nov 29, 2007 01:56 PM
Mike Jones
SUNSTREET MORTGAGE, LLC (BK-0907366, NMLS 145171) - Tucson, AZ
Mike Jones NMLS 223495

Thanks, all, for commenting.  I can't keep up with you, but I'll come comment on your blogs.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  Lisa, I did make the mega-comment into a post. 

Mike in Tucson

Nov 29, 2007 02:15 PM
Mike Mueller
Tech and Social Media Consultant - Walnut Creek, CA

I was just watching CNBC - Erin Burnett, in an interview with Howard Shapiro (Fox-Pitt Kelton, a Mortgage analyst) was discussing Countrywide and the Govt. idea to freeze some mortgage rates.

One of the terms he used was "The Moral Hazard".  I guess he's reading your blog!


Nov 30, 2007 01:57 AM
Elizabeth Nieves
The Elizabeth Nieves Realty Group - Durham, NC
Bilingual Raleigh - Durham North Carolina Real Estate Team
Mike: I'm with you on this. You are (in my humble opinion) right on the money. :-)
Dec 01, 2007 12:53 AM
Mike Jones
SUNSTREET MORTGAGE, LLC (BK-0907366, NMLS 145171) - Tucson, AZ
Mike Jones NMLS 223495

Elizabeth:  Thanks for your opinion! 

Mike:  He might be a reader; let's invite him to join Active Rain!

Mike in Tucson

Dec 01, 2007 01:29 AM
Sarah Eubanks
Hill Valley Financial Services - Oregon City, OR
Preferred Oregon Loan Consultant & Notary Public
Mike ~ Great points and I love the fact that you have linked to Mike Mueller's point on the issue.  i happen to believe you which is why I am telling people that right now is the very best time to purchase a home.  Home prices are fairly low and interest rates will only go up from here.  Thanks on giving us a relevant blog!  :)
Dec 01, 2007 03:11 AM
Mike Jones
SUNSTREET MORTGAGE, LLC (BK-0907366, NMLS 145171) - Tucson, AZ
Mike Jones NMLS 223495

Sarah:

You're most welcome!  Thank you for stopping by to visit and comment.

Mike in Tucson

Dec 01, 2007 06:50 AM
Sarah Eubanks
Hill Valley Financial Services - Oregon City, OR
Preferred Oregon Loan Consultant & Notary Public
Anytime, Mike!  Glad to see that you are as aware and clever as ever!  Make your day a great one!
Dec 01, 2007 05:00 PM